The Scottish elections raised the issue of a UK independence referendum after Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party won 64 seats (exactly half) with an unprecedented number of votes in a record turnout (63%, seven points higher than 2016). All this despite an electoral system that makes it difficult to reach an absolute majority and the use of the “useful vote” by the federalists.

In addition, eight Green deputies should be added to the SNP’s representatives, whose program clearly has an independence referendum: for this reason also Sturgeon feels entitled to start a legal and political battle with London when he wants to do so. consider appropriate. Therefore – not before the end. Pandemic and possibly when elections are favourable. Most seats do not actually translate into majority votes and Sturgeon has made it clear that the fight for the referendum will not happen at an immediate time: “It is the will of the country: there is no democratic justification for Boris Johnson or anyone else.” for those who wish to block the right of the Scottish people to choose their future”.

“If the Tories tried to give it up, they would indisputably prove that the UK is not an equal partnership and that – unbelievably – Westminster no longer sees the UK as a voluntary union of nations: that in itself. A very powerful argument would be in favor of independence”, concluded the First Minister in his speech after the election victory.

Johnson, for his part – and following the Bellicos announcements on the eve of the impossibility of a “divisive” referendum – took a more cautious tone, in a letter in which he invited all leaders of regional governments to a summit following the pandemic. . and recalls how “the interests of citizens of the United Kingdom and Scotland in particular are better protected when we work together, as the vaccination campaign demonstrates”. A statement that certainly won’t reassure Sturgeon or other regional governments, because when it came to negotiating the details of Brexit, London did it all by itself.

This opens up the scenario in which Johnson will be forced to surrender either politically (thus risking an internal leadership that has emerged unscathed from the pandemic’s non-superb management, thanks to an excellent vaccination campaign). ) or will have to be abolished first by the courts, firstly the British Supreme Court, with an unexpected result and which will also set a precedent for other countries, such as Spain where the Catalan separatists, who already have the majority of votes and seats, Following the story carefully.

Yet Johnson shows satisfaction after the British local elections, which saw clear confirmation by the Tories and a poor Labor result that threatens to end Keir Starmer’s leadership. Today for Labor – which today without the Scottish vote has little hope at the national level of the SNP legacy overcoming a Conservative party that remains almost hegemonic in England – the good news comes from Wales, where they won just half the seats. Won, improving previous results – and above all by municipal people, firstly London where outgoing Mayor Sadiq Khan was reaffirmed with a smaller margin than expected. But Labor also won the super-mayors of Liverpool and the mini-regions of Greater Manchester and Greater Liverpool, leaving two of the twelve municipalities in the race for the Tories. The Tories, on the other hand, opened another crack in the Red Wall, the belt of working-class municipalities in the north of England that was once an impenetrable labor stronghold.