UK mob immunity ‘not yet commendable effect’

Professor Ferguson said the effect of the mob’s immunity was now being felt in some countries – but not in the UK, although it could be a “signal” in some London boroughs.

He told BBC Radio: “It is affecting some of the world’s communities now. It is affecting some parts of Brazil, perhaps some parts of India. The UK has not had a commendable impact in this country yet.

“The UK’s most affected area is probably London and there are some London boroughs where there is a hint of crowd immunity, but it’s really too early to say.”

The Prime Minister is set to address the nation this evening to announce a strict coronavirus ban as the number of new infections continues to rise across the country.

My partner Kate N.G. Putting together this guide on where the clock announcement is and what to expect:

‘We are getting a better picture of the immune system’

Professor Ferguson said that scientists are now trying to solidify the estimates of the modeling used at the beginning of the epidemic.

None of that has changed dramatically, but some changes have occurred as researchers have learned more about viruses such as asymptomatic transmission and immunity.

“Now we think that perhaps completely asymmetrical people, who are probably a third of the infection, when they are infected they are nowhere near as infected people with the symptoms and that perception changes. We had to make an assumption about that back in March, now we really have some data, “he told BBC Radio.

“We are getting a better picture of the immune system. Back in March we assumed that immunity would be permanent. We now know more about immunity from this virus and we think it is still fair to say from clinical data that there is but a high degree of immunity for maybe a few months but it weakens so maybe people eventually re-infect and we Start watching. “

UK ‘510,000 deaths could be seen if virus stops being funny’

In the ninth report on the Covid-19 epidemic, released in mid-March, Prof Fergus predicted that the UK could expect around 510,000 deaths if nothing is done to stop the spread of the disease.

Asked if this was his worst case scenario, he said: “We never thought we would do anything except … if we let this disease run smoothly in the population we would have a mortality plus or minus 10, 20 or that level. Would have seen. Maybe even 50,000.

“If we had done that, the hospitals would have been full and the mortality rate would have been higher because we could not have treated the people, but it is a kind of baseline against which you can measure other policies which hopefully will bring that number down. . ”

Pro. Ferguson said he did not believe the figure was given what we now know about the virus.

“I will be completely with him,” he said. “If anything, it may be a low estimate because we have not taken into account the fact that if the health system collapses, we will have a mortality rate. Mortality may also be higher. “

Experts realize that it is ‘almost impossible to control the virus’

When it became clear that Covid-19 was spreading rapidly around the world in late February, epidemiologists realized they had the epidemic on their hands “shortly before”, according to Professor Neil Ferguson.

The expert said that he and other mathematical pathologists who do mingling realized that “high levels of infection in many countries” meant that “it was almost impossible for us to get involved.”

He told BBC Radio: “Estimates of the comprehensive measures taken by countries we can catch most third cases, now we know maybe 10 per cent more, and we assumed that almost certainly spread to countries that were not. Yet recognized and it proved to be true. “

Scientists have estimated how deadly the Covid-19 will be in February.

Prof Ferguson, whose modeling helped shape the UK’s lockdown strategy, was the first to predict how deadly the Covid-19 could be in the country in February.

The former government adviser said experts used shared online data at the onset of the epidemic to work with colleagues’ private data on how the virus could be deadly in the UK.

He told BBC Radio: “We concluded in a few weeks that it should be primarily spread from person to person and probably the most important thing, and a little later, in February, we came up with the first estimate of how deadly it is. This was a virus and it is of course important that if you are going to make a decision you are shutting down society to stop this virus.

“We had an estimated 6% of infected people in China alone, but China has a smaller population than the UK and this is a disease that we know kills the elderly, if you look at these values ​​in the UK population. Translated, we estimate that 0.9 percent, more than the seasonal flu, is deadly. ”

Strict UK lockdown ‘needed’

Professor Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist whose advice led the prime minister to a UK lockdown, said he believed a strict lockdown introduced in March was necessary.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Life Scientific program: “I think we have come very close, especially in London to other parts of the country, drowning in hospitals and so when we react we think, yes I feel a strong lockdown. . ”

It is not clear how long the new sanctions will last

Cabinet Office Fees Minister Michael Gove was unable to say how long the new coronavirus measures are likely to last.

He told us at a BBC breakfast, “We hope we can take appropriate action now, which means that if we can succeed in getting the virus back, then we will gradually rest them in the future.”

“But what I can’t do is predict with certainty.”

Pressed on whether it would be months or weeks, Mr Gove said: “That’s the case, as Professor Vance Lens and Chris Whitty pointed out yesterday, that we’re going to be challenging for the next six months.”

‘Work from home and stay away from social mix’

Michael Gove said people should work from home now if they can, in an effort to “control” the social mix as much as possible.

“If people can work from home, they should do it,” he told BBC Breakfast.

“But I emphasize that it is very important for people whose jobs require them to be in a certain workplace to do so.”

He added that “re-visiting in the early days of our response to the virus” because “workplaces are safe”, adding: “But one of the risks we face is that social mix contributes overall. .

“The more restraint we can have at this stage, the better for all of us and for public health.”

Evidence of hospitality curfew at 10 p.m.

Cabinet Secretary Michael Gove said further steps would be announced when Prime Minister Boris Johnson addresses MPs today.

When asked about the evidence around the hospitality curfew at 10pm, Mr Gove told the BBC Breakfast: “There is evidence that places stay open longer, which leads to more social mixing.

“So, banning this is something we’ve done in parts of the country where the virus is spreading particularly fast.”

He added: “I think it will make a difference, but I think there are other steps that need to be taken, and the Prime Minister will tell the House Commons more.”