The next few months promise a tense debate. victory of separatists Puts on the table last Thursday’s Scottish parliamentary elections
new referendum question For the independence of the nation, after the failure of the last seven years. A project defended by the leader of the SNP (Scottish National Party), Nicola Sturgeon, and the Scottish Prime Minister, but rejected outright by Boris Johnson. Florence Faucher, Professor in Science PO and specialist in the United Kingdom, explains for 20 minutes, Issues and aspects of this new potential referendum.

What will happen now if SNP wins the election?

The SNP claimed ahead of the election that if he had an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament, it would be difficult for the prime minister to refuse a referendum. However, only the government of UK authorize such an event. The precedent was narrowly lost in 2014, and one of the union’s arguments was EU membership. The situation has changed since Scotland voted against Brexit. The second vote is dangerous for the British Prime Minister and Boris Johnson has said it is only possible once in a generation and that he will refuse his organization. We can expect a standoff between Boris Johnson and Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

We do not hold an independence referendum every four mornings, otherwise we live in constant instability and we devalue institutions. For the Scottish Separatists of the SNP, victory in the Scottish Parliament was significant but did not receive an absolute majority. However, he consolidated his supremacy. They have to demonstrate that there is such a movement of ideas that it is overwhelming and is not there now.

for his part, boris johnson They will do anything to avoid such a referendum because they are not interested in a referendum that would end Britain. He is still the prime minister of a party called “Conservative and Federalist Party”. The union with Scotland is old and solid. His party and his voters will not forgive him. The success of the vaccination and the result of local elections in England allowed him to wait calmly for the next general election in three and a half years.

Can Scottish separatists hold a referendum?

The vote can take some form, even if it is not recognized by the UK. one of the possibilitiesScotland A consultative vote has to be conducted which is not really constitutional. Scotland has the right to hold elections no later than in 2014 without the consent of the Prime Minister. But a simple consultation could have been held more quickly than the referendum 7 years earlier because it was freed from national legal control.

If it is a vote held without the agreement of the United Kingdom, the prime minister can hardly guarantee it by campaigning. This does not mean that the Conservatives will not mobilize, and the Scottish Conservatives will certainly be very active, but they would argue that at least as much emphasis should be placed on the illegality of their organization as on the substance.

The real question is, what is the interest in quickly organizing such a ballot for SNPs? Because while this vote may help show that Scotland wants independence, caution will be taken to ensure it is won. The ups and downs in Scottish public opinion will be closely scrutinized.

Why is the outcome of the referendum not certain despite the victory of the SNP?

Although Brexit To which the Scots were opposed could play in favor of a “yes”, it would be necessary to negotiate an exit from the United Kingdom, then entry into the European Union. The state of their finances will depend on how much of the UK’s general debt they are forced to assume, as they are not going to leave with their hands in their pockets. Scottish voters may regret leaving the EU, but leaving the UK has a symbolic and economic impact. These are the same results as France lost to Brittany. With its 5–6 million inhabitants, Scotland is the second of the four countries that make up the United Kingdom and the monarchy is closely linked to Scotland and Scotland to the Queen.

It would also be necessary to negotiate a border with the United Kingdom with Customs, although the partnership has existed for almost three centuries. While activists have wanted Scottish independence for decades, many more are hesitant. It was because of these hesitations that Scotland voted against independence in 2014. The EU will have to signal that Scotland’s re-integration into the EU will be easier. Otherwise it’s possible to face the complexity of the exit, a triumph of the status quo.

Ultimately, even if the United Kingdom agrees to hold this referendum, a number of terms and conditions will be put in place. The colossal mistake that was made for Brexit was not to set the minimum participation or qualified majority requirement (more than 50%). This is not likely to happen again. A qualified majority, for example 65%, and a minimum participation may be required.