The planet is holding its breath again. Sunday in Glasgow, during COP21 2015 The 191 countries that ratified the Paris Agreement will say during this COP26, from 31 October to 12 November, how they want to meet their objectives in terms of reducing gas emissions.

the heat is getting hot

The mission promises to be delicate and the chairman of the British meeting, Alok Sharma, categorically handed it over to our allies. Guardian : “It will certainly be more difficult to reach a global agreement. What they did in Paris was fantastic, it was a framework agreement, but a lot of detailed rules were left for the future. As if we have finally come to the test and only the most Tough questions remained, and we were running out of time, with the exam ending in half an hour.”

The challenge is capital nonetheless: an ambitious limit set in Paris in 2015, to stop global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era.

Since then, the transition to a clean economy and energy has progressed, but very slowly, to limit warming to 2 °C, let alone 1.5 °C, compared with the late 19th century. In August, the latest IPCC report already warned against the risk of reaching a limit of 1.5 °C around 2030, ten years earlier than its previous estimate in 2018, threatening humanity with unprecedented disasters. .

If environmental progress continues very slowly, warming could reach 2°C at the end of this century compared to today, and 4°C if we maintain the current trajectory.

more tense geopolitical context

The health crisis, which has pushed the environmental emergency and geopolitical context into the background, will not foster a consensus on the subject. London and Washington have more strained relations than ever before with China and Russia, whose two presidents are not expected to attend the Scottish summit. If China remains the biggest polluter in the world (see opposite), it will have no lessons to learn: with a 48% reduction in its carbon intensity at the end of 2019, it is already meeting its 2020 target ( 40 on 45). %). But it is heavily dependent on coal plants and has not yet disclosed its revised contribution with this COP26.

France and Europe will show their desire to reduce their emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, a milestone Saudi Arabia has announced for 2060. But by 30 July, the date set by the United Nations, only 113 countries had raised their objectives compared to COP21, that is, a 12% drop by 2030. Too far to account for the reversal of the curve.