“Goodbye, high hopes and confidence,” lamented John Betjeman. Capital A documentary on the expansion of the London commuter belt in Amersham.
Boris Johnson could be there after the Conservative Party suffered a setback failed by-election in the same area? Of course, the result should undermine the idea that the prime minister is an unrivaled political force.
In the 13 elections since the establishment of the Chesham and Amersham seats in 1974, the Conservative Party has never won less than 50% of the vote. On Thursday, despite Johnson’s magic, he won only 36% of the vote and lost to the District Liberal Democrats.
Like Betjeman, local residents do not like the new residential developments that invade this green corner of England. He didn’t think too much about Brexit (55% of people voted to stay in Europe) or HS2, the high-speed rail line that would connect London with the central and northern regions at the expense of the suburbs. This is the revenge of the elite of the metropolitan line.
The result helped justify the Conservative Party’s victory in the May election. Yes, Hartlepool won, but other than that, it’s worse Mixed than the narrative suggests. With the successful launch of the vaccine and the end of the third block in England, the incumbents were delighted by the crisis and the upbeat mood. Exactly six weeks later, politics is returning to normal.
The question is whether the centre-left can gather a majority Built around young graduate voters, even as the Conservative Party leads the way among older Brexit voters in the north.
What doesn’t help is that voters living in Europe have concentrated in cities like London and Manchester (and Scotland). But as Millennials look for affordable family homes and work from home becomes a permanent transition, they are migrating to nearby towns and villages. This should balance the electoral geography a bit.
At the same time, the Liberal Democrats began to return from the desert. They were second in the last general election with 91 seats, up from 38 in 2017.
It is not clear whether they have a coherent platform. Despite conflicts from Chesham and Amersham voters, the Liberal Democrats actually support HS2. He did well in affluent electoral districts by opposing new homes. It could be argued that the Conservative Party should be punished by ninjaism. If I want to persuade local residents to accept housing development, I’ll start by firing a housing secretary. illegal acceptance This development happened after he sat behind the billionaire at the party’s fundraising event.
But progressive people should not ignore the fact that houses have to be built somewhere. They should focus on other weaknesses of the government. Johnson has a delicate coalition of supporters from countries large and small. There is a hike program for leaving the cold South; Sometimes he seems happy, not only ignoring the people living in London, but also actively insulting them. It is financially stupid and can be politically stupid.
Any progressive renaissance depends on the Labor Party. This is why the recent Liberal Democratic by-election failures – Richmond Park in 2016 and Brecon and Radnor counties in 2019 – have almost no lasting impact. Voters decide whether to give a black eye to the government or not in a by-election. In general elections, they decide whose government they want. Currently, few would choose Keir Starmer as prime minister.
Johnson never became a popular prime minister. In the words of his former mentor, Dominic Cummings, he may also be “a guff machine ignorant of politics”. But for a significant number of voters, it is more acceptable than others. It is Stammer’s job to change this situation.
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