Ended border changes could give an advantage to the conservative party – economics and finance

The author is Professor of Political Science at Queen Mary University of London

One of the six requirements set by the charterers in 1838 was that the number of parliamentary districts be approximately equal. It’s a theory that today seems hard to disagree with. This is why the constituency is reviewed from time to time – England Boundary Commission original offer announcement This week, others in other parts of the UK will end the year, an important part of political life. He ensured that electoral boundaries reflect the reality in which voters live now, not where they lived decades ago.

The current comments are long overdue. The first attempt to update the border began in 2011, then was derailed under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition and then abandoned entirely in 2018. 2019 general election The limit established by a process introduced in 2000 is controversial. The upcoming elections should not rely on population figures, which will be around 25 years old, to compete for seats.

However, this may be where the deal ends. If setting up a constituency of equal size seems relatively simple, it is notOn the one hand, where we want the number of seats to be approximately equal, we also want them to represent the actual situation. A book Staffing and mathematics have been a subject for a long time, although mathematics has recently triumphed. This is especially true this time as seats may change due to new requirements. not more than 5% Only a few exceptions are allowed from the national average.

You will see the results of this situation in increasingly long and ugly district names as the Boundary Commission attempts to bring together unrelated geographic regions. We no longer have constituencies called Rye or I, but we do have Cumbernauld, Kilsythe and Kirkintilloch East. If approved, the proposed British constituency would have the most cumbersome title since the 1950 general election. This is the first time that all members of the House of Commons have been elected as a single-member constituency. Scottish electoral districts would still be visible, usually longer.

But even if you have mathematically equal spaces, it still matters where is he You outline the boundaries of the constituency. That’s why in University Politics 101 you’ll learn about Governor Elbridge Gerry and the highly partisan Triton-sized field proposed in Boston in 1812—the episode coined the term “Gerrymandering”—and why in the third year you read the work of electoral bias. decomposition (which shows that it can exist even without intentional electoral division).

This Is One Reason Most Members of Congress Hate the Idea limit switchSome people find that their constituency has completely disappeared, forcing them to try to find a new home, but this is not always successful. Others have lost areas of partisan power or become clumsy in an alley full of opponents, making previously safe havens worrisome. Even those who marginally benefit from this process often dislike the uncertainty and need to establish relationships with people who were not their constituents before.

You may have read countless claims that if the last election had been held under the new limits, Party X would have won more or less Y seats, but the last election was not held within those limits. If that’s the case, then he can fight in different ways. Furthermore, these are all propositions: Past experience has been that once the initial plan is negotiated, it often changes. As the electoral field moves under our feet, it is more difficult to predict what greater-than-usual changes could mean. In other words, take any complaint with caution and you will usually estimate a provisional offer based on sub-optimal data.

But in general, this set of boundary changes is beyond doubt Conservative Party will benefitMaybe around 5 to 10 net seats. Or redefine the phrase: The last election was unfairly spent exceeding the Conservative Party’s current limit of 5 to 10 seats. Despite precise details, widespread change: Scotland and Wales Lost place, England, especially the South finds place – It has been fixed since the beginning of the revision and has quite predictable consequences. It’s not picky; It just reflects where people live now. As for the share of the British electorate, the South East has been on the rise since 2000, while Scotland has been in decline.

Generally speaking, even 10 places is a very small change. Compared to some other factors that determine election results, the difference in the size of electoral districts is relatively small, and has always been relatively small. But, as the ad says, everything helps. Or not, if you are the Labor Party… whose way to regain power becomes faster.