Institut Pasteur developed the model of the omicron

Institut Pasteur developed the model of the omicron

“If we all together reduce our contacts by about 20% in the coming weeks, it is estimated that we can reduce the number of hospitalizations by about 50%,” the Pasteur Institute says.

The Institut Pasteur studied the Omicron version and in particular its impact on the French hospital system © MaxPP/GK Chen

Comes from Institut Pasteur To publish their modeling findings Feather “The impact of the Omicron edition on the COVID-19 pandemic and its control in metropolitan France during the winter”“. This period is at risk as many European countries fight against the rebound of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in our country where “208,000 French people have been found positive for COVID in the last 24 hours”Olivier Veran said on Wednesday.

The worldwide closely scrutinized version has not revealed all of its secrets and furthermore, from the beginning of its report, the Institut Pasteur specifies that “These scenarios are built on incomplete data and uncertain assumptions. Predicting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is difficult and the dynamics of the pandemic can change rapidly.” The model specifically aims to compare Omicron to Delta and measure its consequences on the French hospital system.

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The researchers are the first to assure that at the moment it is “It is difficult to accurately assess the intrinsic seriousness of the Omicron version. As well as “To accurately measure the effect of the omicron wave on the health system”. However, withMultiple infections that double every 2-3 days in late November-early December“Omicron Version Appears”Clearly more permeable than the delta version”.

Based on observations in particular, the Institute, to measure the effect of Omicron, set up different scenarios where The internal severity is the same as that of the delta version (a scenario that can be excluded at this point), the same as the alpha version, the same as the historical virus, or twice less than the historical virus.“After this, the Institut Pasteur can now draw several conclusions.

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Study finds risk of hospitalization 50 to 80% lower than Delta

France Inter. contacted by, Simon Cockamez, epidemiologist and head of the modeling unit at the Institut Pasteur, explains that “through”With these models, we finally tried to better understand what reduction in severity should be observed so that we can have an epidemic that remains manageable with measures of intermediate intensity.” So it turns out, “The severity of this variant should probably be reduced by 80% compared to the delta version.“, analyzes the researcher.

Even if it is still too early to have a definite opinion, let the Institut Pasteur judge “encouraging“, the figure”On the seriousness of Omicron. South African and Scottish data suggest a 70–80% reduction in the risk of hospitalization for omicrons, a 50–70% reduction compared to Delta and UK data. ,

Simon Cochemez nonetheless expresses a difficulty. “People who are infected with the Omicron variant are potentially more likely to have already been infected with another variant or to have been vaccinated and therefore may have protection against these previous infections.“Another gray area that calls for caution, according to the institute,”It is possible that these studies underestimate the reduction in severity if people infected with Omicron are tested less if less symptomatic.”

Speeding up booster dose administration can reduce peak hospitalization by up to 20%

the effect of vaccination clearly Omicron edition on the pandemic, and the institute thus”measured how acceleration of the administration of the booster dose would be able to modify this wave”.

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According to the researchers, we are currently dispensing about 800,000 booster doses per day. Simon Cockamez concluded that “If we were able to further accelerate the pace and go up to 1.2 million doses per day, it is estimated that we could reduce the size of the hospitalization peaks by 10 to 20%.”

About non-vaccinated French people, “s90% of these people agreed to the vaccination, with a rate of 100,000 doses per day believed to reduce the peak size of hospitalization by 20 to 40%.,

Reducing contacts by 20% will reduce hospitalizations by 50%

During this holiday season, marked by gatherings of family and friends, the government continues to remind the population of the importance of meeting in small numbers and respecting barrier gestures.

Simon Cockamez explains on this subject that “What is very clear is that in all scenarios, we are looking at what will happen if we stay at the current development pace of the Omicron cases. From experience, we know that when such a big wave happens, the French will change their behavior and then of course control measures will be taken.,

Nevertheless, the researcher assures that “Behavior changes can really have an impact on the size of this wave and if we all collectively reduce our contacts by about 20% in the coming weeks, we estimate that we could reduce the peak of hospitalization by about 50%. A reduction in contacts, even relatively minor, can have a very significant effect on the shape of this wave,

Omicron exposure “disrupts the functioning of society”

In these conclusions, The Institut Pasteur also mentioned the speed of propagation of the omicron. ,When variants like Alpha and Delta came out in the past, these variants progressed very fast and then their progress slowed down a bit. Here, we take into account the phenomenon that the transmission rate of Omicron (and Delta) decreased by 20% during December compared to the beginning of the month. If this slowing phenomenon is not observed for Omicron, we risk underestimating the development dynamics of the variant in France and its impact on the hospital.”

Like the Scientific Council, the Institut Pasteur estimates that hundreds of thousands of French people could be infected daily in January with most cases with mild symptoms. ,The absence generated by this wave of infection runs the risk of disrupting the functioning of society.,

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