Scotland before the election: all comeback uncertain

Edinburgh. It was one of the most poignant moments in the long Brexit saga: a year earlier, after the vote to leave the United Kingdom, a large number of MEPs sang “Auld Lang Sin”, a song about friendship and solidarity, about hope. And farewell. It was popularized by the Scottish national poet Robert Burns.

The German version of the song met the mood of the Scots, who voted against Brexit with a large majority, and more appropriately: “Say goodbye, brothers, all return is uncertain. The future is dark and our hearts are heavy. is.”

The walls of the United Kingdom are collapsing

The wave of darkness settled on the prospects of the United Kingdom is evident in the smoke of burning cars in Belfast, Northern Ireland, as well as the resurgence of Scottish independence. It is becoming increasingly clear how fragile the structure of the United Kingdom is, what fault lines are opening up as Brexit results.

The nearly forgotten Prime Minister David Cameron has scheduled two referendums on the country’s future, both of which were intended to set aside an issue for a generation. In 2014, Scots voted 55 to 45 percent to remain in the state – a state that was still part of the European Union at the time.

One argument against independence at the time was that a new Scottish state had to first apply to join the European Union – and many in the Highlands and Lowlands would not want to live without Europe. In 2016, Cameroon gambled – Brexit went with 52 to 48 percent. With this, the Scottish question returned to the agenda.

Johnson could hardly refuse a new referendum

On Thursday, Scots will elect a new regional parliament. Freedom is not yet an issue. But if supporters of the second referendum get a clear majority, the path to a new vote is just as clear.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will decide on this in London, but will not be able to rule out re-election if Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party has an absolute majority.

And what happens then? A look at the Irish Sea could serve as a warning that technical mistakes in Brexit could lead to a resumption of unresolved conflicts. 100 years ago Ireland was divided into a republic and Northern Ireland.

And as of then, society is deeply divided over international treaties, which are negotiated overhead, explained conflict researcher Katy Hayward. Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the kingdom is distinct, close, it coexists on a similar level. Nevertheless, a new frontier in Europe is becoming more and more likely.