Herman Khan (1922–1983) is universally regarded as the father of “futuristic science”, a branch of political science – essentially wrong – that aims to explore future scenarios and forecasts, and that combines global and sustainable geopolitics. Are on the development or invitation of.
Khan was a mathematician, expert on simulation game theory, and became famous in 1962 for an essay entitled “Thoughtfully”, in which he analyzed the possible consequences of the US-USSR thermonuclear conflict.
The volume resonated widely in both scientists and the media and cost Khan the label of “Doctor Strangelove”, also because Stanley Kubrick admitted that he was inspired by him and his book to portray the main character of his famous film Underline.
At the end of his career, despite being famous during a conference at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica in 1980, he freeze assembly of his ardent fans with the following sentence: “It is impossible to predict, Especially the future… ”. (“It is impossible to predict, especially the future”).
If this is true then those making predictions about future scenarios should keep Harman Khan’s principles in mind, it is equally true that his 1980 sentence should be taken into account when analyzing “what will come”.
This ironic precaution should take place with evocative and decisive variables and implications at the level of the future and planets marked by the near future, analysis of 2021, the epidemic and its social and economic consequences.
The new year definitely opens with dangerous scenarios.
In Europe, Kovid 19 has not only caused a health disaster, but also an economic disaster whose consequences will be felt not for decades but for years.
In the United Kingdom, as the last time to avoid “No Deal Brexit”, a British exit from the European Union without any agreement with Brussels, a new strain of the pandemic virus has appeared – apparently futile – apparently. In general, much more contagious than it roams in the rest of the world.
Due to this scientific fact, travel from England to all European countries and many countries of the rest of the world has been stopped.
On the eve of its exit from Europe, England is practically under total restrictions, as evident by the kilometric lines of trucks blocked on both sides of the channel.
It is not known whether this dramatic and unpredictable pandemic development, with its immediate and enormous economic consequences (total lockdown and closed borders) will prompt British negotiators to seek an agreement with the Union at the last moment. It is certain that the latest discussion on fishing rights in the Channel and the North Sea, for which the British should impose a complete ban on European fishing vessels from those waters, does not facilitate a creative approach to the search for a solution that ” No deal “avoids” However, it is clear to everyone that failure to agree will cause damage on both sides of the channel.
The UK economy has just ended after the epidemic, but it is indisputable that the future impact of Brexit on the UK’s global stability could be serious.
This is not only a definite effect on the economy (new, unavoidable, skyrocketing prices for duties, falling real estate values, declining employment levels, etc.), but also of potential internal turmoil: Ulster and the Republic of ‘ Ireland is determined to keep it open to what has become the only land border between Europe and Great Britain.
The closure of the Brexit border is seen as a misfortune by all Irish people, Catholics and Protestants.
After years of depression and civil strife, the open border revived Ulster’s economy and helped the Republic of Ireland from the crisis of the 2000s.
Although, in principle, there are still “enemies” for religious reasons, Irish Catholics and Protestants are united in an attempt to make London understand that Ulster and Ireland are determined to keep the border open, religious hatred now reduced and Bonds are tied Protestant Unionists with the English motherland are undermined by Brexit.
Scotland also shows signs of non-negligible restlessness.
In Europe’s referendum, the Scots voted to “stay” and were unwilling to pay the consequences of leaving Europe.
After the referendum, Scotland’s predecessor Nicola Sturgeon announced: “We Scott are very angry because we have always opposed Brexit. Anger and sadness strengthen us even more to gain freedom. And it will happen, you will see. it’s just a matter of time…”.
There will be general elections in Scotland next May and Sturgeon reiterated in recent times that if his party, the Scottish National Party, wins the election, “it will be with the promise that the Scots will be able to vote in a referendum for independence”.
To repeat its distance from London, which is already putting a speech in the wheel of the thousands of Europeans who work permanently in Great Britain, the Scottish Premier has opened up to citizens of Europe living in Scotland The letter reads in which they do not invite you to leave Scotland, “Scotland is your home, welcome here, we want you to stay … you are our friend, family and neighbor … We are giving your rights Will help you implement “.
The clearest word that the Herald seems to be a political storm for London, which is set to begin in that year, will be the loss not only of the epidemic, but of the economic consequences of an undefined Brexit, and for political people coming from Scotland and Ireland.
A situation that can lead to questioning the essence and integrity of the “Kingdom”, which is no longer “United” and is also popular for the existentialist philosophy of the people of a stubborn island, such as: “Storm on the Channel”. The continent is isolated “.
In 2021, however, the “separation” of the continent could cost Her Majesty’s subjects very costly.
On the other sides of the Atlantic, the Biden presidency will surely take a decisive turn from Donald Trump’s separatist tendencies, trends that have not stopped one of the most important blows in US foreign policy in recent times, even the outgoing president. Years: Israel’s rapprochement with the Arab world was planned and carried out by Trump with the active support of the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
This is possibly the heaviest legacy left by Donald Trump for Joe Biden.
A legacy with which the new Washington administration will have to carefully consider whether it wants to understand the role of the great power that Obama’s disintegration and the mistakes of Clinton and Kerry had lost in the Middle East.
Although the redistribution of relations with China after Trump tops Zoe Biden’s new White House agenda, contenting herself with the imbalance of trade with Beijing with tariffs – indeed free for China in Africa Left the region and in the Far East, relations with Saudi Arabia should be redefined
The United States wants to play an important role in the Middle East’s balance (and imbalance …).
Riyadh tells us that the results of US presidential elections are raising concern in the courts.
The king is well aware of Salman bin Abdelaziz, the congressional democratic component’s hostility to the Kingdom, and the unscrupulous activism of Crown Prince bin Salman, who was accused of killing an apparently disgruntled journalist, Jamal Kashogi. Was. On 2 October 2018 inside the premises of the Saudi Embassy in Turkey.
Several Democratic depots and senators are lobbying Congress to support the launch of “ad capitulation” restrictions against key members of the Crown Prince’s entry.
In addition, the fragile dossier of the fate of former Saudi Interior Minister, Prince Mohammed bin Najaf, and his close aide Saad Al Jabari, both fled to the United States to escape arrest on corruption charges, is uncovered.
Al Jabari’s suggestion concerns allegations of a series of “questionable” contracts with US companies signed by bin Najaf.
The latter was a CIA associate who currently lives and keeps a secret location in Virginia.
The Saudis are well aware that the CIA defends its allies to the bitter end and will therefore exercise all its influence over the new administration to avoid Saudi Arabia’s extradition.
Even though Biden spoke very harshly against the Saudi state during the election campaign, in Riyadh he remembers that the new White House tenant as Obama’s vice president never showed that he was the most powerful state in the Persian Gulf Used to be hostile to
According to reliable diplomatic sources, King Salman would be very attentive to Washington’s new approach to Riyadh, to the point that in order to keep the dialogue open with the Americans, he must even be willing to sacrifice the prince Which should represent a constraint. Beginning constructive dialogue with the new US administration.
It is no secret that the king was not at all happy with Mohammed bin Salman’s activism towards Israel and his commitment to open diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Bahrain, the Emirate and Sudan.
It is clear that the crown prince’s downsizing cannot fail to have a negative or crippling effect on the new course of Arab-Israeli relations, a new course for which the new Biden administration also looks favorably.
As we can see, the dossier that Trump was cast as his successor is not simple. We will treat others on other occasions.
It is certain that, even in view of Harman Khan’s “forecast” prudence, the ensuing year, from a geopolitical point of view, would be anything but boring.
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