This 6 May is an important date for UK politics. On the same day, next Thursday, for the Scottish Parliament, a major and symbolic college will hold by-elections and eventually local elections in dozens of municipalities and cities. Some variables can be seen for the overall evaluation of this election round.
Scottish independence, could there be more vaccine than Brexit?
Over the past two years, most analysts have cited the emergence of a new flare-up of Scottish independence as a reaction to Britain’s divorce from the European Union, a move – mostly disliked by Scottish voters. The election to the Scottish Parliament on 6 May, will allow the first concrete verification of this hypothesis. It is certain that Low Scottish National Party (SNP)The Scottish Independence Party will come out of the election as the first local party in terms of consensus and seats. This is a confirmation of what has happened in recent years. More important would be the SNP’s assessment of the extent of victory. To be reached to speak of “victory” coincides with an absolute majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament. If such a border was crossed and crossed, it would become more difficult to resist the call for a new referendum on the independence of Scotland from Britain. British Prime Minister so far, Boris johnsonRelative to the position of their conservative predecessors: the referendum on Scottish independence was already held in 2015, with the proposal for secession being defeated in elections, so another referendum could be discussed in the distant future, generations. Measured in terms of, this is logic. Labor, although they are also “unionists” like conservatives and therefore opposed to Scottish independence, maintain a longer waiting position without explicitly excluding any hypothesis.
Then what to expect on this front? For a moment, the pro-election forces the separatists closer to the seats of absolute majority. With someone Warning:
How fragmented will the independence front be?
There are three independence parties: the SNP, the Greens, and Alba, recently founded by former SNP leader Alex Salmond, who was in dispute with the current SNP leadership. According to the latest surveys, the SNP may miss an absolute majority by an integer (two or three seats). Regardless, thanks to the complex voting mechanism, the objective of a complete “independence” majority must still be attained. From a political point of view, however, there may be a definite difference in the probable timing of the request for a second referendum, depending on whether the majority is made up of the SNP and the Greens, or the SNP and the Alba.
How long will conservatives keep?
The Tories in Scotland have been losing voters with an apparent boom since the 1970s Margaret Thatcher. However, in the 2015 Scottish Parliament elections, the Tories managed to establish themselves as the second party behind the SNP, bypassing Labor. If they manage to play this role again, perhaps by strengthening their position relative to other parties, they will increase their resistance to SNP and allied projects.
Is independence still a majority?
In recent weeks, looking at the elections, we are seeing a definite new phenomenon in the Scottish electorate: for the first time since Brexit, in fact, the desire for an independent Scotland seems to be to split the Scottish electorate in half, as opposed to some elections. Even with it estimated by a mustache below 50%. A change that can perhaps be explained in two ways. First, the successful management of the vaccination campaign by the London government, especially when compared to the lethargy and inefficiencies of continental Europe, may change the minds of some Scottish voters over the relevance of the “Brexit” issue. Second, the possible separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom will result. Hard limit Between the two new entities, with the associated constraints and costs for the exchange of goods and for the economy in general, in the face of a relationship with the European Union that has yet to be conceived and constructed.
Compass to develop political cultures, complementary and local elections
Voting institutes have increased the frequency of publication of their voting in the wake of the elections on 6 May. In the following weeks, continued conservative gains over Labor have been indicated. On April 28, a YouGov poll also showed conservatives nationally 11 percentage points higher than the Left opposition. On 6 May, however, only one Westminster seat is for the tombs, Hartlepul’s College, where the by-election is taking place. Here too, where the outgoing deputy belonged to the Labor Party, the Conservatives seem to be ahead in the elections, and with a fair margin of profit. Why can such a seat be important? Because Hartlepool College is located in a geographic area called “Red wall“, A former Labor stronghold in which conservatives made a historic confirmation in the 2019 national elections. Red wallIn the traditionally Labor political faith, the consensus for Brexit (ruled by conservatives led by Johnson) was decisive in giving the electoral priorities a twist. If the Tories also win seats this year Hartpool, We will confirm that the turning point was anything but fleeting or only – albeit significant – decided by the issue of Brexit.
In short, Hartlepule’s by-election will have the “signaling” value of the development of the main English political cultures. The Conservatives would win, confirming the electoral goodness of efforts on a new theoretical and programmatic expansion, more focused on the economic-social front with a minimal state and more attentive to support public investment in health, infrastructure, and housing. On the other hand, Labor lost in their (East) Red wall This would mean that they have not yet managed to tarnish the image of a “patriot” party and that the effects of the changes of the last twenty-five years on the socio-economic fabric have been given little attention.
Other indications, particularly on the “geographic” dimension of political confrontation, would come from local elections. As for the graves, there are about 5,000 seats and 145 local authorities in control over the next 6 May. In particular, it votes for a renewal of 35 Metropolitan borough, Urban centers of which only 2 are operated by conservationists, and 21 County councils19 of which are controlled by the Conservatives and 2 by an alliance between the Conservatives and independents. Therefore, the current map confirms the divide between voters in large cities (with a Labor majority) and smaller centers (with a conservative majority). Does this fracture persist, shrink or deepen? If we consider voting for the election of the mayor of the capital London, there seems to be no history: Labor’s success is evident in large urban centers. Yet the same surveys point to some possible surprises: In the city of Liverpool, for example, a historic Labor allegiance, an independent candidate leads in voting intentions. These are balances to monitor in a thoughtful manner.
Johnson’s political future is at stake in the election phase
Finally, the political future of Boris Johnson. Will the Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016, then Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs from 2016 to 2018, then Prime Minister from the summer of 2019 to the present day, Johnson be able to remain until the natural end of the legislature at 10 Downing Street, 2024? It should be noted that the strength of the current Prime Minister so far has mainly been based on his ability to interact directly with public opinion and to have direct relations with it. His power, as compared to other leaders who preceded him, relies much less on his ability to plan policies or as leader of parliament instead. It is no coincidence that his leadership began to waver in the first phase of the epidemic and by the beginning of 2021, on the one hand due to some indecision on the anti-epidemic strategy, on the other hand mainly due to parallel mounting. A certain “palace” dissatisfaction among conservative lawmakers in opposition to pro-measures Lockdown. Today Labor, riding on the controversy over Johnson’s alleged irregularities in the management of private funds aimed at the renovation of Labor Street, are trying to scratch the link between the Prime Minister and public opinion. At the moment, three factors come into play in favor of Johnson’s assets: the management of the vaccination campaign and the success of the same, even in relation to what happened in the European Union; Credibility achieved by completing tough Brexit negotiations; Stronger than expected economic recovery in the country. The May 6 elections, as a whole, will tell us whether the Prime Minister’s weaknesses or strengths will prevail. With possible immediate consequences on Johnson’s solidity in his role as Leader. In fact, while in the Labor Party – as well as in many other movements of the European Left – ideological-programmatic debates often dominated, the Conservative Party, on the contrary, has always been very attentive to the ability of its leaders to attract consensus. Electoral to support political proposals. Therefore the Tories have their eyes on Bojo.
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