Gb, Scotland is dreaming of Europe, to vote tomorrow

Gb, domani la Scozia al voto, sognando l’Europa

Tuesday 4 May 2021 – 10:53

Gb, Scotland is dreaming of Europe, to vote tomorrow

Sturgeon’s Snape favorites but will he have an absolute majority?

Rome, May 4 (askanews) – Tomorrow the Scots will go to the polls to elect a regional government. The shadow of Brexit falls on the vote – a lot of Scots remain – and there remains a dream of independence from London on the horizon, which could mean a possible return to the European Union this time.

The largest parties to compete include the SNP, Scottish National Party of Incumbent Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labor, Scottish Greens and Scottish Liberal Democrats, but there will also be many smaller parties and independent candidates. There is some doubt about the SNP’s victory but it will be important to understand its extent. The problem is essentially whether the SNP will have an absolute majority or will have to form a coalition or even a minority government. To complicate the picture, Alba’s head, former Prime Minister Alec Selmond’s return to politics, a new political formation that, in the event of a good confirmation, could complicate the future structure of Scottish politics.

In a recent panelbase poll for the Scott Goes pop website, The Scotsman newspaper noted, the SNP will be the largest party in Holyrod (Scottish Parliament) after next Thursday’s vote, with 61 seats, in a snap. Two less than that achieved. 2016 and four fewer than an absolute majority.

In this context, some colleges become decisive, such as Labor in Dumbarton, East Lothian and Edinburgh Southern and Frontier constituencies such as Edinburgh Central, Aberdeenshire West and Air controlled by Tires. In the case of confirmation in these allies, the SNP can rise to 65 seats and have an absolute majority.

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Will there be a pro-independence majority? Even though the SNP does not get an absolute majority, a pro-independence majority is likely, according to a panelbase poll of 1,075 over 1,075 conducted between 21 and 26 April.

This is largely due to increased support for Alba, which is running in the regional ballot only and is now expected to win eight seats in the election.

6% of respondents said they would support Salmond’s party with their list of votes and 11% of those who voted SNP in 2019 indicated they would vote for Alba and 13% for Scottish Greens.

As an analysis by the BCC revealed a week after the election, there is little mystery about the end result – only the SNP is talking about forming a government. But there are still answers to some important questions that could have a huge impact on Scotland’s future.

The most obvious questions are always the same: Will the SNP have an absolute majority? Will it be able to form an independence majority with the help of other smaller parties? Will conservatives be able to dominate Labor in the battle for second place? And what are the factors that can help answer these questions?

The voting factor may prove to be the deciding factor.

In general, the BBC notes for elections in Holyrood, about half of those who actually have the right to vote do so. The average turnout since 1999 has been 53%.

This does not necessarily make things more unpredictable, even though the lowest turnout in 2003 – 49% – produced an almost “ineffective” rainbow parliament of seven different parties. And the SNP won the fewest voting seats in 2016 – all 41 were voted SNP MSP in the lowest-voted 41 seats, while the party polled three of the top ten seats the most. There should be little fear in case of low voter turnout.

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The question is whether voters going to the polls on 6 May will be different than in previous years. Analyzing the demographics, it is clear that older people are traditionally more likely to vote, but are more likely to be negatively affected by Kovid-19 and therefore potentially nervous about leaving their homes Has happened.

Meanwhile, a record number of people have signed up for a postal vote, but these are probably quite politically engaged individuals who might have voted for any person.

What will be the impact on small parties? A total of 25 parties are participating in the election. Everyone in Scotland will have at least 15 different options on their regional rolls and in some areas the ballot will look like a telephone directory.

Smaller parties have already run for parliament with varying degrees of success, but they may succeed to a great extent in 2021, largely thanks to former Prime Minister Alex Salmond who led Alba as party leader Re-entered the political arena. .

It is extremely difficult to say whether Alba will promote the pro-independence cause, or whether it will divide votes and cost seats to larger pro-independence parties. The same can be said of George Galloway’s All for Unity group in favor of Britain.

The SNP’s plan for this election was to essentially talk about independence, in contrast to Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership with Boris Johnson. But the rise of Alba means that Ms. Sturgeon does not have full control of the independence front and is thus forced to talk about borders, the currency, the European Union and a whole range of potentially uncomfortable topics that she is Would like to postpone for the future. Referendum campaign. An exclusive poll by Savita Comeko for The Extendman looks at its lowest level just before the 2019 general election, which saw Boris Johnson’s conservative party gaining an overwhelming majority in Westminster.

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