No trend reversal: 2021 will probably be one of the hottest years too

Ein Mann spaziert mit seinem Hund durch rauchverhangene Luft an einem türkischen Strand. Foto: Emre Tazegul/AP/dpa

A man takes his dog into the smoke-filled air on a Turkish beach. Photo: Emre Tzegul/AP/DPA

The climate crisis remains: the year 2021 will also be one of the ten warmest on record – and the outlook for 2022 doesn’t look much better.

New York – whether heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods, tornadoes or record rainfall – extreme weather events in 2021 in many places around the world will make it clear how much the effects of climate change are already felt. can be done.

Experts are certain: 2021 will again be one of the warmest years since records began, and there is no sign of a trend reversal.

According to the US climate agency NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) in early December, 2021 will be one of the ten warmest years since records began, with a probability of more than 99 percent. It is likely that this will be the sixth warmest year ever. The ten warmest years ever measured were over the past two decades: 2016, 2020, 2019, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005.

significant warming

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) previously announced that, according to preliminary measurements, the year 2021 will probably not be quite as warm as the previous three years, but nothing has changed in the long-term trend of significant warming. 2021 will be one of the seven warmest years in recent history – since 2015.

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At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Scotland in November, a global farewell to coal was introduced, but with an apparently watery formulation. Climate activist Greta Thunberg and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres commented, “Here’s a brief summary: blah, blah, blah”, adding that the consensus was an “important step”, but “not enough”. “We are digging our own graves,” the UN chief warned earlier.

Several regional climate records were broken in 2021. Land temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were on average higher than at any time since NOAA records began in 1880.

Arctic in serious trouble

Scientists say the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. “The effects of man-made climate change are driving the Arctic region into a dramatically different state than it was a few decades ago,” said NOAA CEO Rick Spinrad. “These trends are alarming and undeniable. We have reached a critical moment. We must act and face the climate crisis.”

In addition, researchers are concerned about other persistent trends such as the reduced extent of ice cover in the Antarctic and higher emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). And the outlook for 2022 also does not promise any improvement. According to NOAA scientists, the probability is now more than 99 percent that 2022 will again be one of the ten warmest years since records began.

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