The Cataneo Institute updates its projections for the last 26 July, taking into account the possible presence of another list (Italia Viva-Action) independent of the main coalition, which exceeds the threshold for access to the distribution of seats on a proportionate basis. could. and based on the 2019 European elections, the average of the polls published between the second week of July and the first week of August, and – again – in the case of IV-Action, voting intentions expressed in the first 4 months of 2022, the resultant Picture is center-right majority magnification. It is not, however, Cateneo warns, to raise it to two-thirds of parliament, which alone would allow constitutional reforms to be introduced.
“In a previous analysis – reads the institute’s dossier – we estimated the degree of competition of single-member constituencies and the possible overall distribution of seats between coalition and non-aligned lists”. The previous estimate, therefore, was made by assuming that the voter complex changed, in support of candidates of the centre-left coalition, to one of the theoretically acceptable votes according to the July elections (average of all published). intended to give. Political forces in that region: PD, Left, Verdi, Together for the Future (Di Maio), + Europe, Action (Calenda), Italia Viva (Renzi). Subsequent events have made it clear that the last two would not be part of a centre-left coalition and that they may ally themselves to life on an independent common list, according to the currently most recognized hypothesis that 3% Chance to cross the threshold. and hence gaining access to the distribution of proportional share of seats.
Overall, considering the average of all polls published between the second week of July and the first week of August, the three centre-right parties (FdI, Lega, FI) held the M5S responsible for about 46% of voting intentions nationally. has been ordained. Just under 11%. To establish how much of the vote could be considered in the center-left and the envisaged IV-action list today, Cattaneo uses an estimate of voting intentions for elections published in the first four months of 2022, when the action and Europe was measured separately. The result brings the center-left to about 30%, the IV-action list to 6%.
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