The fight for the future of Scotland has resumed. The victory of separatist parties in Thursday’s elections marks a possible break with Great Britain again.

The Scottish National Party and the Greens campaigned for the independence of Scotland and accession to the European Union. The British government, which has to approve the new referendum, has already rejected it.

But should Scottish independence be achieved somehow, what are the chances of EU membership?

Scottish Center on European Relations analyst Kirsty Hughes says that if the referendum should take place in the next five years, Scotland will still be close to EU laws, after all, the UK has been a member of the EU for almost half a century. There may be an obvious way to subscribe.

But how much Scotland still has to deal with EU laws depends entirely on the UK’s post-Brexit policy in the coming years.

On the European side, any agreement between Scotland and Brussels must be ratified by all EU member states. This is currently doubtful as some countries like Spain do not want to succumb to separatist aspirations anywhere in Europe.

Hughes said that as long as the independence process was constitutional, Spain would not stand in the way of a Scottish membership application. And that means both Scotland and Great Britain would have to agree to independence.

Public finances can be a problem. An independent Scotland could start its future with a deficit significantly higher than EU rules. For now, Brussels is holding back from making a statement. After all, the debate about Scotland being a member of the European Union is still pure speculation.