However, the target agreed in the 2015 Paris climate agreement is to limit temperature rise to below two degrees, if possible, to 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era. According to calculations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions of climate-damaging greenhouse gases will have to be halved by 2030.

CAT researchers found there was a “credibility gap” between what was being said and what was being done halfway through the climate change conference in Scotland. An “optimistic scenario” of just 1.8 degrees of warming is also conceivable – but only if those countries keep their long-term commitments that want to become climate neutral by the middle of the century. It lacked credible, concrete concepts for this in most countries.

Greenpeace boss Jennifer Morgan called the forecast dire. “It is a devastating report that, in any sane world, would prompt governments to immediately end their differences and work on agreement to save our future.” Instead, see COP26 as the “sabotage, sabotage and selfishness” of the powerful, while weaker states fought for their lives and youth activists called for justice.