After Brexit, Scotland on its way to independence?

It was one of the first reactions after the announcement of the post-Brexit deal, reached between Britain and the European Union on Thursday. ” It is time to chart our own future as an independent European nation », Confirmed to the Scottish Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, demanding a second referendum on the independence of the British province, despite London’s refusal.

The first, held in 2014, was not well received by the Scots, with a narrow majority (55%) voting to remain in the United Kingdom, signaling the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon’s predecessor, also a member. Scottish National Party. Since then, Brexit has been a game changer.

A growing mistrust

In the 2016 European referendum, when the entire United Kingdom voted 51.89% to leave the European Union, in Scotland, 62% of voters wanted to remain there. They are now able to do good in spite of themselves. ” Brexit comes against the will of the people of Scotland “Declared leader of separatists, insisted on that” No deal can ever be what Brexit takes from us ».

Nikola Sturgeon off a campaign bus against Brexit in December 2019. – AFP

During the negotiations, Theresa May had already denied Scotland any veto rights, which deprived her of real influence in this historic referendum. The incident sparked a growing mistrust of London and revived the independence movement, further boosted by the health crisis in recent months. While 74% of Scots are satisfied with the handling of the Kovid-19 epidemic by their Prime Minister Boris Johnson, only 19% receive favorable opinion.

Meanwhile, the post-Brexit trade deal has failed to ease tensions. opposite of this. The British Prime Minister, who promised butter and butter money when he left the European Union, is accused of cheating Scottish fishermen. ” Johnson promised rights to all fish in our Special Economic Zone, but we only got a share “This Monday, Andrew Locker, one of the leaders of the British Federation of Fishermen’s (NFFO) organizations on the waves of Radio BBC, 4. The makers of whiskey and Scottish farmers also consider themselves unjust.

A dream within reach

Nicola Sturgeon intends to capitalize on Brexit and this dissatisfaction with managing the crisis to see what she wants. She also stated in late November that she ” Was never so sure It has now gained popular support for Scotland’s independence. In elections, the last fourteen public opinion polls on independence give the winner a “yes”, according to France Inter, with results ranging from 51% to 59%.

To cap it off, his Scottish National Party, since 2007, is widely preferred in local elections after May. She had already gained weight by winning 49 of the 59 seats in Scotland at the British House of Commons in December 2019. The SNP wants to make this election a “referendum on referendum”. If he wins, he will see the victory as a green light from the Scots to organize a new consultation. ” The people of Scotland have the right to choose their own future, The Scottish Prime Minister said. The question for everyone in the May election is, who should make the decisions that shape our future? »

Boris Johnson. – AFP

A big hurdle

And ” Freedom is clearly in sight For Nicola Sturgeon, she will face a major obstacle: London’s denial. Since the first referendum, Boris Johnson has repeatedly ruled, allowing Scotland to hold a new vote, arguing that it was a coming vote ” Once per generation “. However, it is impossible to organize any new consultation, without compromising the conservatives, without violating the constitution and considering the result as invalid.

Even though a strong SNP victory next year will put more pressure on London to accept a second referendum, the road to independence is still long.