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Coronavirus pandemic: updates from around the world

A forecast published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects over 27,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by June 27.

The ensemble forecast is based on 20 individual forecasts from external institutions and researchers. The new projections, published on Thursday, predict 27,230 deaths by June 27, with a possible interval between 118,450 and 143,340 deaths.

“This week’s national ensemble predictions suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths just reported per week will continue to decrease. It predicts between 118,000 and 143,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by June 27,” said the CDC on his website.

Unlike some individual models, the prediction of the CDC ensemble offers only projections for the following month. The ensemble’s previous prediction, released last Thursday, predicted around 123,200 deaths by June 20.

The projections are published on the CDC’s “COVID-19 forecasts” page, but are also present in the agency’s “COVID data tracker”. On both sites, users can also view state-level ensemble predictions.

“The ensemble’s predictions indicate that the recently reported death rate will vary across states,” says the CDC on its forecast page.

“In some states, cumulative deaths will increase at about the same rate as they have in the past few weeks, while other states are likely to experience only a small number of additional deaths from COVID-19.”

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