The president’s real headache is caused by his own: Biden’s party ally in the Democratic Party.
John Podesta, a former party leader and adviser to both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, says if the president and his own party do not agree, it could be “disastrous” for both.
bitten in a pinch
This week, both Biden and Democratic Party leaders want to get at least two major resolutions through Congress:
- A huge infrastructure package costing $550 billion – more than 4,700 billion kronor.
- A massive climate and welfare package costing $3.5 trillion – more than 30,000 billion kronor. The package is the so-called “build back better” plan, perhaps Biden’s most important choice.
Only one of the packages, the infrastructure package, requires Republican support. Democrats have a majority in both houses of Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives, but it is not Republicans who stand in Biden’s way.
These are Democrats.
The most moderate Democrats in the Senate are skeptical about how much the “Build Back Better” plan is going to cost, which has shrunk in scope after talks. Most progressive Democrats, for their part, think they’ve made enough compromises.
Joe Biden stands in the middle, trying to pull both camps in the same direction.
Advisers to Obama and Clinton say that should Biden fail, it would be “devastating” for Democrats’ re-election prospects in 2022. podesta til politico.
— If someone points to the fact that when Democrats were in control, they couldn’t do anything for you, it would make no sense to answer how weird Republicans have become, Podesta says.
And if the democratic majority is lost after the by-election, it could crush Biden’s political project.
American expert Hilmar Majelde, researcher at the Norse Research Institute, says Biden now has a chance, and he himself is painfully aware of it.
– Biden’s maneuver room is about to close. The president has only the first year of his presidency to pass major reforms. Then American politics goes into full electoral mode again, and then almost everything shuts down, Majelde tells Dagblad.
According to the US expert, if Biden fails with both the infrastructure package and the “build back better” package, the verdict will be ruthless.
— then he will be another failed president, based on the goals he has set himself, Majelde says.
Regardless, Biden has a story against him whether or not he should succeed this week.
Historically, the party of the incumbent president almost never wins the first by-election after a presidential election. Elections to the House of Representatives are held every two years.
– All presidents, whose party also controls both houses of Congress, almost always have a rude awakening when a new political reality emerges two or four years later, says US expert Anders Rommerheim, Department of Defense Studies (IFS) researcher Huh. Norwegian Defense College (FHS), to Dagbladet.
For many Americans, it’s a point of keeping “balance” in the state apparatus, Rommerheim says.
Center-right voters often think it’s perfectly okay for one party not to control both chambers of Congress and the White House, researchers say.
That is why US expert Majelde is already making a solid prediction for the midterm election.
In the first by-election, Clinton and Obama lost 54 and 63 seats in the House of Representatives, respectively. We can take it for granted that the majority of Biden also smokes. Then his legislative agenda will die, and he will be manager until 2024, Majelde says.
Majority Against Biden
For the first time in his presidency, Biden now has a According to opinion polls, most Americans are against him.
The circles around the White House indicate that Biden now needs a victory. Even after two major victories in Congress, IFS researcher Romarheim doesn’t believe Biden will automatically win the American side again.
– What really promotes the president is something that is above party politics. National crisis, for example, where a president can unite and speak to all Americans. That didn’t necessarily get a big boost in getting things thundering through Congress, much to Republican discontent. The United States expert says it’s simply food for the democratic stormtroopers you hear the most criticism from now on.
He believes that the current political climate in the United States rewards ideological perseverance rather than compromise.
It is a negative nature of the bipartisan system that you have only one political opponent. In the United States, there is a leniency to involve the other side. The parties like to say that “we must now stand up for what we have promised and not compromise on our values”. It’s especially strong among Republicans, really starting to take root among Democrats as well, Rommerheim says.
– Keeps brake pads on
For a long time, Biden rode a wave of success and goodwill. He took over the White House after the historically unpopular Donald Trump, who never had the support of most Americans, and at his peak, Biden’s support in the United States stood at 57 percent.
In August, arrows began pointing downward again, accompanied by a pandemic that flared up again in several places, and a controversial military withdrawal from Afghanistan.
– What we see now is the system that applies the brake pads. We must remember that the normal and natural thing in Congress is inaction. US expert Majelde says the system has built-in braking mechanisms to evade legislation without broad enough support in the country.
The Norse researcher believes Biden’s two prestige packages haven’t gone through Congress in a flash, so it’s entirely natural.
Parliamentary support for Biden is similar to popular support for the president: far from overwhelming.
Biden is trying to be the new Franklin Roosevelt and the new Lyndon Johnson. It was the two presidents who created the limited welfare state that exists in the United States today, but behind them were the vast majority of Congress. Technically speaking, Biden doesn’t even have a majority in the Senate.
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