France’s uncertain future: the Republican Front has the lead in the wing

Twenty years after toppling Jean-Marie Le Pen, who reached the second round of the 2002 presidential election against Jacques Chirac, the Republican front in France has been lost… Two decades on, Jean-Marie has given way to her daughter The National Rally (RN) at the head of a National Front Ripollin’ Marine but still camped at the far end of the political spectrum.

Helping with demonetisation, voting for RN is less and less a problem for many citizens if they didn’t bring Marine Le Pen to the top of the state last April, giving RN a historic victory in June’s legislative elections.

fragmentation of the political sphere

Its eighty-nine members entered the National Assembly, a score that no one saw coming and that made the party an opposition force by Marine Le Pen, with the presidential majority “together!” gathered under the banner. Have to create.

For CNRS research director Sebastien Michonne, a member of the SAGE laboratory at the University of Strasbourg and an expert on French political personnel, the demonetisation of RN does not explain everything, even if, during the presidential campaign, it benefited from the disruption of Eric Zemour, Troubleshooter, more on the right than on the far right.

“Originally, Researchers say, We are witnessing the fragmentation of the French political sphere and, as a result, the second round of legislative elections, a record number of triangular elections, during which no candidates were withdrawn. The very tight scores allowed everyone to hold on to hope, thus placing the question of political competition on the Republican front.

Overall, notes Sebastian Michonne, “The political system has avoided giving very clear voting instructions for fear of blaming the infant”.

For example, he cited candidates from the right-wing Les Republican Party, who hoped to recover the RN votes and did not dare to block them for fear of “hurrying” potential voters.

“Great Innovation”in his eyes, though “stress“Latest of the Presidential Majority Against the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (NUPS), founded by the President of France Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Waving the scarecrow of the far left during the intervening period, Emmanuel Macron’s supporters hoped to recapture right-wing voters, but there’s more to this strategy. “Blur the Tracks” that the personality of the re-elected president is very “cleaving”, On the right, some preferred the far right, restraint was massive and RN all but easily out of the game as Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left refused to even call for a dam on the far right.

“never seen”

Finally, as Sebastian Michonne notes, RN’s entry into the Bourbon palace breaks a certain balance. “It’s unheard of.”

“At the moment, however, this party is playing for generalization and assuming a more right-wing rather than far-right position, which it demonstrates as a guarantee of its ability to participate in institutions.”

This resulted in the withdrawal of the RN candidate in the second round of elections for the post of Speaker of the Assembly on Wednesday. Macronist Yael Braun-Pivett was sure to win in the third round, but this return from the dimension “Very Symbolic” Used to be “strategic”.

Feedback from cowboy to cowboy, in the process, the two RNs were elected “together!” Do these exchanges of good practices indicate future alliances between the presidential majority and the RN?

Sebastian Michonne doesn’t think so. “Definitely tempting, these coalitions will be very costly compared to the entire electorate, which remains hostile to the far end and the RN remains a marked formation … the presidential majority will need support on one text or another. That’s it. Will see them in pieces, on the right or among elected socialists or environmentalists. The RN will send a signal to say that it is open to discussion, but I think there will not be many people to answer these calls.

RN. don’t leave too much room for

Witness this Thursday, the unsuccessful negotiations between RN and Les Républiques to win the presidency of the prestigious dinance commission. ric Cocquerel, La France’s Nupes candidate, was eventually elected against the RN candidate, who testifies to the will of the Republicans according to Sebastian Michonne. “Marines won’t leave much room for Le Pen’s party” because it would be equal to “Their scuffle”.

“In order to survive, LRs cannot conclude an agreement either with RN or with ‘Together’! They are stuck in pincers.”

“It won’t be easy to catch up with the times, Sebastian looks at Michonne. We will have a real parliamentary life with mediation every week, which will create a lot of uncertainty. We wonder what the next step will be.”

Is the dissolution of the assembly possible? Not likely at this stage, the researchers say. “Who would want to take that responsibility in a fragmented France, where people vote for consensus frequently or intermittently, where the RN is stronger and where the Republican front is far less vibrant than it used to be?”

“hard to predict”He draws conclusions.