Awesome forecast for Europe: it threatens our continent in the future

Research published by the climatological group World Weather Attribution and the European Climate Foundation (ECF) also found that rainfall in the region is now three to 19 percent higher due to man-made warming. According to the ECF, the findings support the findings of a comprehensive report published this month by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at the United Nations. He said there is now indisputable evidence that humans are warming the planet’s climate and that such changes are the main drivers of extreme weather changes. The new report shows that with rising temperatures, the amount of extreme rainfall and flooding will increase in western and central Europe.

Extreme can attack anywhere

From 12 to 15 July, parts of Western Europe received heavy rains. More than 90 mm of rain fell around the Ahar and Erft rivers during the day, which was much higher than the previous record. The floods that followed killed at least 220 people in Germany and Belgium. “This year’s events show once again that record-breaking extremes, exacerbated by climate change, can strike anywhere and cause enormous damage and casualties. Local and National authorities should be aware of the increased risks of extreme rainfall. To better prepare for potential future events,” Frank Kreinkamp, ​​head of the Potsdam climate office, said.

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The researchers analyzed weather records and computer simulations to calculate the impact of climate change on the heavy rainfall that caused the floods. He compared the past to today’s climate, when global warming increased the average temperature by 1.2 °C compared to the end of the 19th century. The study focused on extreme rains caused by flooding in two particularly difficult regions in Germany, where an average of 93 mm of water fell over two days. The authors analyzed rainfall intensity rather than river level, partly because a large body of water eroded some of the measuring stations.

Zdroj: SITA/AP/DPA/Andr’ M’rz

Experts have revealed a large amount of variability between years in these local rainfall patterns. To assess the impact of climate change, they looked at broad-area data. They examined how similar extreme rainfall is likely to occur elsewhere over a wide region of Western Europe, including eastern France, western Germany, eastern Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and northern Switzerland, and how this affects rising global temperatures. Wide-field researchers have found that man-made climate change has increased the amount of rainfall received in a day by between three and 19 percent. Climate change has also increased the likelihood of severe rainfall events from 1.2 to nine times, like the recent floods. With today’s climate, similar events can be expected once every 400 years in any part of Western Europe. As greenhouse gases continue to rise and temperatures continue to rise, such heavy rains will continue to fall.

Zdroj: AP . Via SITA / Boris Rossler / dpa

The study involved 39 scientists from World Weather Attribution, including researchers from universities and meteorological and hydrology offices in Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, the US and the UK.