Biden poll: the former vice president reached a milestone never reached by Hillary Clinton: 50% support

This is Joe Biden's best path to win in 2020

Indeed, if you look at the average of live polls released since last Sunday, Biden manages to eclipse 50% (51%). That is, it has a majority for now. This is a key milestone which should not be underestimated.
As I noted in the past, Trump’s return in 2016 was greatly simplified by the fact that Democrat Hillary Clinton was not voting close to 50%. The average live interview survey taken in June 2016 (when libertarian Gary Johnson was included) had Clinton at 42%. None of these polls even touched it by 50%. In fact, it never came close to the average of the polls during the rest of the campaign.

When Trump bridged the gap in the waning days of the 2016 campaign, he had to convince very few Clinton supporters to vote for him. Trump simply had to gather support from those who were undecided or supported a third party candidate.

At this time, Trump’s path will be difficult if not nearly impossible to win if he does not resume the voters who are already with Biden.

Other historical examples are also not too kind to Trump. The only other challenger at this point who was 50% or was hanging in the balance was Jimmy Carter in 1976. He won.

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One of the presidents that I often point to Trump as a beacon of hope is Harry Truman. He is the only incumbent president who was dragging out of the margin of error at this point in his offer for a second term that has returned to win. Also, Truman was the only president with a negative negative approval rating (approval – disapproval) below -5 points at this point in the campaign to return and win.

Here’s the problem for Trump: the average poll at this point had Truman’s Republican opponent Thomas Dewey at 46%. So even though Biden’s lead over Trump in these polls is 2 points lower than Dewey’s over Truman (just 9 points south), Biden gains about 5 points more support from voters. Dewey simply had no voters who would engage with him in the same way as Biden at this point.

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Indeed, Trump’s need to convince those who are not already with the other camp is reflected in another way. Her disapproval rating in the average survey is 54%. No other president at this point in the polling era has had such a high disapproval vote before the chance to win a second term. Truman was 47%, while his approval score languished at 39%. However, there was a majority of Americans who at least did not disapprove of him.

In 2016 Trump showed he could challenge history. If he wants to win a second term in 2020, Trump will have to do some.


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