According to the German research center IFW, a potential EU energy embargo targeting Russia would affect Russia’s economy much more than the EU’s. The latter conducted several simulations to assess which would be the most effective trade embargo.
“In the case of a trade embargo on gas, Russian economic output would fall by about 3%; in the case of an oil embargo, by about 1%”According to IFW.
For Germany and the European Union, in both cases, “The economic damage will be very limited”has been indicated.
As for the German institution, this does not change its imitation that the sanctions initiative comes from the European Union or Russia itself. To explain the lesser impact on Western economies, the German research center has suggested that other trading partners turn to Russia for gas or oil deliveries.
Other sanctions, for example on machine tools and machine parts or vehicles, will have little effect on the Russian economy with projected declines of 0.5 and 0.3 percent respectively, and little effect in the European Union.
EU opinion
Since the Nord Stream II gas pipeline is not yet in operation and therefore does not transport gas, the fact that its authorization process has been disrupted does not directly affect gas prices, Commissioner Margaret Vestager responded on Wednesday. . ,
Taking the same confident position as chairman of the Commission, Dane assured that Europe had sufficient sources of supply and recalled that the pipeline connecting Russia to Germany “Not a project of European interest”,
At the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during a meeting with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gehr Store on Wednesday that the EU is now “really determined to get rid of dependence on Russian gas”. Norway is seen as a preferred option for gas supply. In 2020, it accounted for almost a quarter of natural gas imports in the EU (24.5%).
It was indicated in Eurostat figures, ahead of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus as the first importers, but these figures are misleading, the statistics office warned: the gas imported from the last two is actually most of the Russian gas, which is supplied to the European Union. Places in a position of significant dependence on Moscow. For the EU as a whole, the rate of outside dependence on natural gas was estimated at 83.5% in 2020. “Gas is important and we need diversification and modernization. But in the long term, it remains a transition energy source” (towards renewables), Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday.
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