Merkel’s ‘centre-left’ Social Democrat blue… “The variable is 40% floating layer”

German Bundestag general election D-2

After the flood, the approval rating of the ruling party ‘shaky’
Scholz, the third Social Democrat, took the lead
Ratchet, a classic against Merkel’s endorsement
The rise of the ‘coalition partner’ of the Green Party

The German Bundestag general election, scheduled for 26 (local time), is three days away, and attention is focused on the ‘Post Merkel’. As the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) overtook the ruling parties, the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (Citizens and Knights Union), to take first place, after Merkel discussed the possibility of a change in Germany’s helm. is happening.

In a poll released by the polling agency FORSA on the 21st, the Social Democrats, led by candidate Olaf Scholz (63), registered 25% approval. 22% after the aggression of candidate Armin Ratchet (60) and the Alliance of Knights. It was followed by the Green Party with 17% and the Liberal Democrats (LDP/FDP) with 11%. This situation is very different from the early days before the elections. The Citizens and Knights Coalition, to which Chancellor Angela Merkel belongs, was 20 percentage points ahead of the Social Democratic Party, based on the prime minister’s strong approval rating, as of earlier this year. However, just after the flooding event in mid-July, the approval ratings of the Citizens and Knights Association were shaken, and Ratchet lost first place to the Social Democrats as Ratchet’s scandal was reported at the site of damage.

The Social Democratic Party, which was only third, moved up to first place thanks to Scholz. As a lawyer specializing in labor law, as well as deputy prime minister and finance minister, he is blunt enough to be called robot-like, but he has actively responded to the COVID-19 economic crisis and lashed out at the German people. left a mark .

On the other hand, Candidate Ratchet, the de facto successor to Chancellor Merkel, is struggling every day. As a former lawyer, she strongly supported refugee acceptance promoted by Chancellor Merkel in 2015. In this election, he targeted the votes of conservative and liberal voters by making promises such as suppressing tax increases and lowering corporate taxes. However, he underestimated the risk of COVID-19 and rated as lukewarm even in the climate crisis, and his approval rating as a prime minister saw a decline. Notably, the decline in the ‘Sulva’ approval rating at the site of the previous flood was a decisive blow. Chancellor Merkel has strengthened her support by expressing her support for Ratchet, but the gap with No. 1 Scholz is not narrowing.

Green Party candidate Annalena Verbock (40), who is in third place, is likely to play a major role in the cabinet, including deputy prime minister, even if she fails to elect a prime minister. With the current approval rating, it is difficult for either party to win a majority, and the Green Party is highly likely to emerge as a coalition government partner. Candidate Baerbock made an active commitment to the climate crisis, including raising the carbon emissions reduction target to 70% compared to 1990 and meeting coal-freezing by 2030. It is assessed that it has received overwhelming support from youth who prioritize climate response over economic development.

Some believe that if the Social Democratic Party wins the election according to the current approval rating, it is likely to form a progressive coalition with the Green Party and the Left Party (Rinke) with similar policy leanings. It is a union which is expected to adopt bold policies in terms of labour, welfare and environment. However, in terms of foreign and security policies, the intersection of the three parties is small, and there are voters who are wary of radical policies, so it is unclear whether a coalition will actually take place. For this reason, some believe that the Social Democrats may seek a so-called ‘traffic light alliance’ (the symbol colors of these parties are red, green and yellow) with the Green Party and the LDP. In such a situation, the centripetal tendency in economic policy can be strengthened.

On the other hand, if the CCP manages to turn around at the last minute, it is highly likely to form an alliance with the Green Party and the LDP. This is a combination that is expected to be more neutral than the traffic light alliance.

There is a possibility that the situation will fluctuate at the last minute as the gap in the current approval ratings is not big and there is still a floating floor of around 40%. “There is a possibility that the immovable class will show a conservative tendency at the last minute and vote for a party that does not follow drastic reforms and experimental policies,” said Wolfgang Merkel, a professor at Humboldt University in Berlin.