Poll: In the election – Erdogan will not have a majority

Although elections in Turkey are scheduled to be held on June 25, 2023, the issue of elections in Ankara was on the agenda some time ago. And now, a survey by the Make Institute has found that no less than 49% of Turkish citizens support the early elections, similar to 49% who say it is not necessary.

At the level of the map of seats in Turkey’s parliament, it appears that Turkey is facing an election campaign that would change the political map beyond recognition. Due to the high blocking percentage – 10% – two parties who are in parliament today may find themselves below the threshold. And first, the Far National Movement Party (MHP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the coalition partners of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), receives 7.7%. This means that without him – Erdogan does not have a majority in Parliament. At the same time, a technical block with MHP will not help to win a majority.

At the same time, one party currently below the blocked percentage is the Kurdish Democratic People’s Party (HDP) with 8%. On the other hand, the Justice and Development Party continues to receive the highest 32.2% of the vote, followed by 22.5% in the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Good Party (iYi) which is above the blocked percentage. With 12.3%.

The parties staying away from the blocking percentage are the new parties led by the Justice and Development Party: Future Party (GP) led by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, which includes 2.2% and the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA). Led by former Foreign Minister Ali Bazan, with only 2%. An interesting point is that not less than 10% of the respondents – have not yet decided in their favor whom they will vote for.

Supporters of HDP Party / Photo: AFP

Another reason for concern for President Erdogan comes from the question “How satisfied are you with your life?” Asked those who answered. Less than 73% of CHP voters and 54% of iYi party voters said they were dissatisfied. Among right-wing parties, 14% of MHP voters and 11% of AKP voters are dissatisfied with their lives. Finally, Turks are very concerned about the new US President Joe Biden, as 46% of respondents think their choice is a bad development for Turkey.