Scotland: Election Analysis – “I expect a long battle for another referendum”

The regional election in Scotland is over. Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish National Party clearly won the election – but missed out on an absolute majority. What this means for the question of Scottish independence from the United Kingdom is now two stories.

Sturgeon, along with the Greens, claimed a majority in parliament for independence.

Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister Scotland:
“So a referendum cannot in any way be called my request or SNP’s request. It is a promise of the public – by a clear majority of MPs elected to the national parliament. It is the will of the people.”

On the other side is Boris Johnson. He does not want to go down in history as the British Prime Minister under which the state falls apart. Tone from London: The SNP missed an absolute majority just before the first referendum in 2014.

Nikolai von Onderja, Science and Politics Foundation:
“Both these stories are colliding now and I really hope that there will be a long battle over whether there can be another referendum. This will not happen immediately, but rather something that will happen in 2022, 23 or later. “

The SNP has won 64 seats, missing for the sole majority. But with eight seats of the Greens this is enough. Nevertheless, the Scottish road to independence is complex. The Edinburgh government must pass an independence referendum law. And then the Supreme Court decided whether approval from London was needed to implement it.

Nikolai von Onderja, Science and Politics Foundation:
“The major legal battle is over the interpretation of the so-called Scotland Act, which determines what rights the Scottish Parliament has. And one capability that does not have to be decided is to determine between the Union of the United Kingdom and the states of England and Scotland. “

Johnson’s biggest argument is the 2014 referendum. He has long been of the view that the question has been resolved for a long time.

Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister:
»We had a referendum in 2014. It was decisive. It was – I think everyone agrees – something that happens after a generation. “

An opportunity that exists once per generation – that too was the opinion of the SNP seven years ago. And at that time the country decided against independence with 55.3 percent of the votes.

But: A lot has happened since. Scotland had voted against Britain with a 62 percent exit from the European Union – and now had to accept a harsh Brexit. Therefore, freedom advocates freedom, changes everything. And this complicates things for Johnson.

Nikolai von Onderja, Science and Politics Foundation:
“Because many arguments against Scottish independence were certainly arguments against Brexit as well.”

Johnson is now playing for a period of time. He has reduced his power. Elections were also held in England – with great success for traditionalists. Prohibiting a possible court verdict, Johnson will now make every effort to convince the Scots to remain part of Britain.

Nikolai von Onderja, Science and Politics Foundation:
“Topped with the vaccination campaign.” But we can also assume that a lot of money will be sent to Scotland in the future to show that it is worth living in Britain. “

It is entirely possible that he will succeed with it. Because the mood is not as clear as Sturgeon wants to portray it.

Nikolai von Onderja, Science and Politics Foundation:
“There are also enough studies that there are some SNP voters who support the party as a leftist party, who make social policy, but not one hundred percent assure themselves whether they want independence or not.”

In the end it will also be very decisive When There will be a possible v – v referendum. Because there are ups and downs in elections. There was strong support for independence at the beginning of the year – also due to poor handling of the epidemic. Since the success of vaccination, the mood has changed, now opponents of freedom are slightly ahead.

Nikolai von Onderja, Science and Politics Foundation:
“It depends on the time and the exact political circumstances when the referendum actually takes place. And this is why both sides will consider very carefully: when is the best time for me, when can I call a referendum and then how can I include the Scottish population for myself? “

It is unlikely that Sturgeon will win legally and advance the referendum without Lohdon. And so in the end the decision may be with Johnson. Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that it will allow the referendum. In the hope that the advocates of independence will fail again – and thus in the long run.

Nikolai von Onderja, Science and Politics Foundation:
“If they lose it again. Then one might assume that this question should be answered for several decades. “

And how is the European Union dealing with the dispute? She now has to decide whether she wants to see the debate as a purely domestic issue as of 2014, or whether she wants to send a positive signal to EU supporters in Scotland. And this decision is a complex one.

Nikolai von Onderja, Science and Politics Foundation:
“Because London would see it as a hostile act if the European Union advocates for Scottish independence too positively. Because from a London point of view that would really be an attempt to isolate the United Kingdom.”