Instead, Trump is more than clinging to the economy. Right now, it’s a force for him. This advantage may not matter, however, this autumn’s elections will come.
The last one
National survey CNN / SSRS puts Trump’s approval rating on the economy at 50%. This is only one point below Trump’s average since the 2018 mid-term election. It also matches what other polls are finding. Trump got a 50% approval score on the economy in April
Marist College survey and a 52% in
AP-NORC survey.
In addition, the president still appears to be winning on the economy against former vice president Joe Biden. In
CNN surveyTrump had a 12-point lead when voters were asked who they trusted most to run the economy. This increased by a 4-point margin for Trump last month.
At first glance, it may be surprising that Trump is doing so well on the economy. With almost all objective measures, the economy is going badly right now.
Trump’s stability makes a lot more sense, however, if the Americans do
I’m not blaming Trump for the economic downturn. The coronavirus epidemic is a unique pandemic in life that affects many different countries. Most of the world leaders
are experiencing rebounds in their approval assessments.
Americans are probably giving Trump some weakness given the pandemic with concern for the economy.
Polling showsfor example, they prefer that household orders remain in place to ensure security rather than reopen the economy. Of course, Trump, perhaps believing that the patience of the Americans will run out, is now rejecting orders to stay home.
Importantly, Americans believe that the economy will be in a better position next year. A majority, 57%, said in CNN’s poll that current economic problems represented a “temporary obstacle to economic growth and the economy will recover soon”.
All of these data points are good signs for Trump. The bad economy does not seem, at this moment, to hurt him too electorally, and can never lead to the kind of backlash that past economic recessions have for the party in office.
The bad news for Trump is that if you look
almost every single survey, Trump is losing to Biden overall. Although it is winning on the economy, it is behind.
The problem for the President is that there is much more going on than the economy. Trump’s overall approval rating has consistently followed the economic approval rating. Changes to Trump’s approval rating have been disconnected from changes in the economy.
Right now, the choice of voters is much more related to feelings about the coronavirus than the economy. In fact, it is much more related to the choice of vote than almost all the variables I’ve ever seen.
Trump is losing to Biden in handling the coronavirus by a 6-point margin in the CNN poll, which is almost identical to Biden’s overall 5-point advantage. Of those who bid Biden, Biden has a 90-point advantage over who can better manage the coronavirus epidemic. Trump has a 90-point advantage in managing the epidemic among those who claim to vote for Trump.
For comparison, Trump won only 69 points in total among those who trust him on Biden for the economy.
These statistics adapt to what we have seen historically. As I wrote earlier, there have been several elections in which a non-economic problem has occurred in the minds of the voters. Historians won those elections when they are most trusted with their opponents on this issue. Either they were forced to abandon their reelection offers or they lost when their opponents are believed to be better equipped on these important non-economic issues. This includes times when the economy was doing well.
The economy may not sink Trump, but it is unlikely that it will save him even if voters trust him. Trump will probably only win if the Americans believe he will do better on Biden’s coronavirus.
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