Turkey may suffer big loss in Russia-Ukraine standoff

US-based Foreign Policy published an article on Turkey’s position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Jeffrey Mankoff signed letter, “Turkey could suffer huge losses in Russia-Ukraine standoff” title is used.

The article stated that the concentration of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border caused concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict in the east of Ukraine, and caused a diplomatic flurry of attempts to launch a Russian offensive. The potential tension between Moscow and Kiev posed a serious challenge to NATO, which has long sought to reassure Ukraine without provoking Russia.

According to Mankoff; For now, Ankara is betting that the crisis on Ukraine’s borders can be resolved diplomatically. Nevertheless, Russian officials see Ankara’s military-technical ties with Kiev and its relations with the Crimean Tatar community as provocative gestures. In article Turkey’s economy is faltering, It was said that Erdogan’s domestic popularity had fallen. The article also claimed that Turkey would be one of the NATO members with the most casualties in the event of an escalation of conflict between Turkish and Russian forces in the scenery from North Africa to the South Caucasus and the Ukrainian military. boundaries.

Turkish retard

Mankoff summed up the Turkish dilemma as follows:

“It is the result of the pursuit of greater strategic autonomy and influence in the wider region, including the Balkans, the Arab Middle East and the Caucasus. This pursuit has separated it from many NATO allies and locked it in a complex bilateral relationship with Russia . “

In the article, it was written that the Turkish military intervened in Libya in 2020 to support the UN-recognized interim government (in December 2019 on a controversial maritime boundary agreement for safe access to oil and gas in the Mediterranean Sea). signed). Also in 2020, Turkish weapons and proxies proved effective in the successful invasion of Azerbaijan to reclaim Armenian-occupied territories in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, and the events in question proved effective. Turkish and Russian forces periodically came face to face and entered into direct skirmishes. was also expressed.

strategic approach

Despite increased regional competition Turkey has also forged strategic ties with Russia in recent years. Mankoff said:

“The main drivers of this synergy are frustration with US support for the Syrian Democratic Forces, and second, the outcome of the failed 2016 coup attempt. Ready to tolerate Turkey’s more assertive stance in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus Ukraine may be proven right, however (partly because it helps reinforce the idea that Turkey is an independent regional player rather than a Western stronghold).

Mankoff explained that since US President Joe Biden took office in January 2021, Ankara has sought to mend its extraordinary disagreements with Washington and other NATO allies, due to concerns that it will become increasingly vulnerable to Russian pressure. is getting weaker. Yet the attitude in Washington has hardened in recent years. Tensions over the purchase of the S-400 reinforced long-standing frustrations, particularly on Capitol Hill, and pressure from the Turkish government on the press, civil society and opposition parties added to the tensions. According to Mankoff; Despite efforts to improve relations (including the Biden-Erdogan meeting at the NATO summit in June 2021), A major change is unlikely after the Turkish elections (currently scheduled for 2023), which could see the end of Erdogan’s presidency.

“It will be beneficial in the short term”

Finally, Mankoff stated that Ankara faces the risk of diplomatic isolation and strategic over-expansion in the event of a new conflict, stating:

“Russia may increase pressure against Turkish interests (for example, in Syria’s Idlib Pocket) to keep Ankara on the sidelines in Ukraine. Combined with declining gas supplies to Europe through Belarus and Ukraine, The cancellation or suspension of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline by German regulators would be a short-term boon for the Blue Stream and Turkish Stream pipelines.,