Donald Trump is historically strong with his base, and that’s his problem

By
Rex Rose
Donald Trump is historically strong with his base, and that's his problem

The same poll shows that Trump’s support among self-identified Republicans is 93% to 5% of Biden.

What’s the point: Trump made a clear play during his presidency of meeting the Republican base and the poll indicates that this effort is clearly paying off. Its base is not abandoning it, although its overall number remains weak.

Trump’s problem is that he practically exploited this support tank.

After making a great effort to get the score in the primary against virtually no competition, Trump is winning a little less than 95% of the Republican primary vote in general. It looks a lot like the general election poll that puts it at just under 95% of the Republican vote. It will be difficult for him to go much further.
In fact, Trump has more support among Republican voters right now than any Republican since at least 2000. You can see it in the ABC News / Washington Post survey. That, like that of Monmouth, has Trump almost 95% (94%), while Biden stands at only 4%.

Dating back to 2000, no Republican has ever had more than 91% of Republicans who supported him at this point in the ABC News / Washington Post poll. The average Republican had 84% of the Republicans behind him. A basic strategy in those elections made much more sense than one during the Trump era.

(The historical nature of these numbers applies if we include independents who rely on Republicans.)

Maybe Trump believes he doesn’t need to change his strategies because he ignored most people’s advice and still won in 2016. This is a mistake. In addition to the fact that there is good evidence that Trump it worked much more than a moderate than it was governed, Trump had much more room to grow with the base in 2016. He scored only 74% of self-identified Republicans in an ABC News / Washington survey taken from just this point – the lowest of all Republicans since 2000.

Where Trump is weak is out of the republican base. In the ABC / Washington Post (numbers are similar for Monmouth), Trump is 39% independent and 3% democratic. Both are lower than any Republican at this point in the ABC News / Washington Post survey dating back to 2000.

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In other words, there is much more potential support for Trump outside of the basic Republican base. Trump, however, doesn’t seem interested in making the effort.

If Trump doesn’t change things, he may find that the other side’s base is bigger than his. Biden is currently conquering a larger share of Democrats (96% in Monmouth and 95% in the ABC News / Washington Post poll) than Trump who is winning the Republicans. Both polls, as was true of almost every year registered, measured more Democrats than Republicans in this country.

By continuing his basic strategy, Trump assures that he won’t see the bottom fall. He will find, however, that actually accumulating the coalition needed to win will be extremely difficult.

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