Market outlook KW53: Looking ahead – 12/24/20

Yet no compromise is a concern in the Brexit controversy and the corona mutation. On the other hand, a new US stimulus package will also not work. It remains complex. From martin blumel

The year of the stock market is coming to a close. A most unusual year. And you can be almost certain that there will be a lot in store in 2021 that you don’t even expect. 2020 was marked by panic on one side, but also by hope on the other side. Probably also out of greed. After the rising accident. Those who have not lost faith in the shares in the past few months may now be pleased that the investments made for retirement provision or for whatever purpose have not largely lost value. With a little luck and skill, you will be better now than you were twelve months ago.

It is clear that happiness or relief about it is still cloudy. Coronovirus, or rather fear of it, as well as drastic political measures, weigh heavily on them. Interference with civil rights and freedom is widespread. And it is becoming difficult to give impartial discourse in politics. On the contrary: Along with the arguments of the supporters, some critics of the current measures are now very populist and defamatory. Even those who should know better, who are members of an ethical council, for example, or hold the top position in government and society, are excited that anyone can be intimidated.

Dramatic minus

Nevertheless, one should not lose hope. Perhaps it is better to listen when the barking of frightened people intensifies. One thing is clear: according to World Bank calculations, the world economy will be reduced by five percent this year. He is dramatic. Nothing like this has happened since the end of World War II. But central banks and governments alike have retaliated, even though it is difficult to predict how expensive these measures will be.

Recently, after a long war, members of the US Congress agreed to another Corona stimulus package worth $ 900 billion. It is primarily about lump sum payments to citizens of $ 600 and an increase in unemployment benefits. As a result of the Corona epidemic and shutdown measures, the poverty rate in the United States has increased rapidly.

The fact that US aid did not react positively to the stock markets was due to new news about the epidemic. Coronovirus mutations discovered in Britain brought concerns back to the markets. This allegedly more contagious variant raised fears about even harder and longer restrictions. Many countries are already shutting themselves down for this reason and initially ban flights from the United Kingdom until the end of the year.

Constantly facing disputes

Because there has been no progress even in the Brexit controversy, temporary attempts at a Christmas rally were ended. Finally, even after the latest deadline for the trade agreement expires, the European Parliament wants to avoid a difficult economic break at the end of the year. David McAllister, head of the EU Brexit group, said that Parliament “felt obliged to take every step to reduce disruption for citizens and businesses.” In any case, due to the short time, it will no longer be possible to confirm an agreement in time for the end of the year.

Martin Blem is editor at BÖRSE Online and author of the stock market blog www.bluemelstaunt.com.