The independence of Scotland no longer frightens economists. And Covid chaos weakens London

British occupations no longer feared the independence of Scotland. this is what comes out of a Survey Published by “The Times” In London on 2 October. 54% of business executives surveyed suggested that separating Scotland from the United Kingdom “won’t cause problems”, while only 22% consider it a risk factor from an economic point of view. Thus one of the strong elements of the federalist “discourse” appears to be the cracking, according to which Scottish independence would damage the economy. It was always said: Scotland too isolated to stand alone, British economies too integrated to be isolated.

Meanwhile, the political climate also seems to have changed. While First Scottish Minister Nicola Sturgeon (an expression of independence activist, Scottish National Party) records an unprecedented peak in popularity, polls indicate that A new referendum on independence This could result in a contrast to 2014, when a “no” for separation from the United Kingdom won with a prevailing 55% over “yes” for secession. This was revealed by a YouGov poll published on 12 August, which indicates that Scots would be 52% in favor of independence, a share never reached before.

Fueling this new trend will be the combined action of the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit, managed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which is considered the most “disastrous”, as suggested by Skinny. Johnson enjoys 20% popularity in Scotland. In contrast, Prime Minister Sturgeon collects what was sown in lockdown, when it appears every day on Scottish TV, communicating in a sympathetic and reassuring manner, but with a more severe contagion than in other areas of Great Britain. Implements preventive measures. By August the popularity of sturgeon had risen to 72%. Scots who oppose independence also promote it: 59% of them indicated that the “first minister” has done well in times of pandemic.

The element is important: with the 1998 transfer, health care has become the responsibility of Scottish institutions. there pandemic pandemic The Scots showed an unprecedented centrality of the Edinburgh government, which was previously regarded as legislating on secondary issues. In contrast to the chaos that prevailed in Westminster and Downing Street, Scotland was considered adept at managing the crisis. This was confirmed by “Courier” political analyst David Clegg: “Covid-19 has brought with it this strange by-product. All the questions about the economy, Scotland’s position in the world and the risk of shackles being broken are three of the shared history.” Over the centuries, has been reduced to one very simple question: Nicola Sturgeon or Boris Johnson? ”.

Following the defeat of the separatists in 2014, Brexit intervened to increase the consensus for self-government requests: The “No” to Exiting the European Union He won Scotland with 62% of the vote, revealing widespread pro-European sentiment. Scots regard community institutions as guaranteed “equivalents” to the central government. The results of the 2019 general elections are also similar: if at the national level Boris Johnson won with 43%, the “Tories” in Scotland collected a modest 25%, a drop of 3 points compared to 2017. Thus, over the past two years, requests from the SNP for a new referendum on independence around the next elections to the Scottish Parliament, scheduled for 2021, in which a tight victory for the SNP is expected, would signal another London.

but veto boris johnson, which in January rejected calls for a new vote: “We will not allow another referendum that will confirm Scotland’s decade of political stagnation, with Scottish hospitals, jobs and schools again left behind because of a separation campaign from the United Kingdom”. Johnson does not intend to take the risk that Prime Minister David Cameron, who delivered the 2014 referendum in the belief that “no” would win. But if Cameron was saved by a broken headset in the Scottish referendum, this was not the case in the Brexit referendum: there was also imminent “stay” victory, advocated by the former Conservative premier himself. But surprisingly they won “Vacation” and the first to turn heads was Cameron.

An error that Johnson does not intend to repeat by authorizing the consultation with an unintended consequence. The protests of Sturgeon, who responded clearly to Johnson, are of little value: “tori are terrified that Scotland exercises its right to choose its future. But democracy will win. Games for Freedom runs the risk of cracking down against the rocky nationalism of Boris Johnson, who does not want to transform himself from Churchill’s emulator to the man who made the United Kingdom’s dissolution possible.