Right now Cristobal is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts. It is moving southwest at 3 mph. On its current track, it is expected that it will continue to interact with southern Mexico in the coming days.
The main risk for this storm will continue to be rain. Ten to 20 inches of rain is possible through the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracrus and Campeche. There may be isolated quantities of over 2 feet of rain.
Some of the Pacific locations in southern Mexico received 20 inches of rain over the weekend and could receive an additional foot of rain. According to the National Hurricane Center, “Rainfall in all these areas can cause life-threatening floods and mud.”
“Campeche Bay is notoriously the warmest part of the Gulf region at this time of year,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.
In fact, the sea surface temperatures for this area run 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal at this time, providing a lot of fuel for the storm.
In the long run, storm forecasting gets a little tricky. CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller says, “Long-term forecasts are very complex because of potential interactions with land and strong winds that are expected to affect the vortex.
“The model’s predictions show a myriad of possibilities ranging from the storm that dies on the rough terrain of southern Mexico, to a second circulation that forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico that could become the tropical storm.”
States along the Gulf coast should monitor the situation carefully in the coming days and have a plan in case a storm threatens the coast.
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