Boris Johnson facing a crucial election test

Throughout the channel, we don’t hesitate to talk about “Super Thursday”. No less than 48 million Britons voted this Thursday in the biggest local election since 1973. The ballot should make it possible to renew 5,000 seats in 145 local councils in England and elect 13 mayors, including London, while the Welsh and Scots will renew their parliaments.

While Boris Johnson is still embroiled in the renovation scandal of his Downing Street apartment, the ballot is his first test since winning the legislative election in December 2019. It is a question of demonstrating that they have consolidated their success. The pro-Brexit strongholds of central and northern England, which they then snatched from Labour.

Consolidate the success of December 2019

All eyes will be on these ancient mining lands, where a Yougov poll published by “The Times” last week Predicts a one-third jump in the number of seats for the Conservatives. Nationally, the “Tories” enjoy a ten-point lead over Labor in elections, which may have been reduced to a recent controversy affecting the prime minister’s integrity, but this made it possible for them to lose by only 500. needed. 700 seats of local councilors across the country (against over 2,000 in 1995). Analysts say such a midterm local election is a good result for the ruling party.

Conservatives hope to keep the iconic West Midlands Town Hall, which covers the cities of Birmingham and Coventry, and the Tees Valley in northwest England. They also think they can win the sub-seat that Labor have held since 1974 at Hartlepool, which was called to play in a by-election on Thursday.

Keir starrer expected to turn on

Lots of challenges for Keir Starmer, leader of the Labor opposition for a year and who faces his first election test this week. If Labor loses too much ground or allows some of these symbolic positions to slip away, the leader risks being caught by his left wing, which accuses him of a style that is too cautious and a position that It is very mediocre.

The leader of Labor should in any case be able to count on the renewal of Sadiq Khan as Mayor of London: the capital, of which two-thirds are deputy Labour, must indeed confirm its anchoring to the left, because It is credited to be more than 20 points ahead of his conservative rival Sean Bailey.

A high-risk survey in Scotland

But the essential topic, this Thursday, will undoubtedly be the renewal of the Scottish Parliament. Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon is counting on the vote to secure an absolute majority, which she could use to demand the right to hold a new referendum on Scottish independence in London.

But the knife is double-edged: if she fails, and if the Scottish National Party is content to remain the majority party, Boris Johnson will have a good time sending her back to her goals, adding that her mandate What he expected from the Scottish people was a clearly major stake for the future of the United Kingdom. However, if all surveys predict a victory for the SNP, they do not guarantee it to receive an absolute majority.