Donald Trump: a record number holds a strong opinion of the president

Donald Trump: a record number holds a strong opinion of the president

Trump’s path to victory will likely depend on Biden’s definition through negative publicity. What is far from clear is whether it will work.

Right now, most voters are very convinced of Trump. We can see this in the polls that ask voters if they have a strongly favorable, a little favorable, a little unfavorable or a very unfavorable vision. If you average your surveys from late March onwards Grinnell College / Selzer and Company, Fox News is Monmouth University27% of voters have a very favorable view of Trump and 42% have a very unfavorable view of Trump.

All in all, 69% of voters have a strongly favorable or unfavorable view of the president.

That 69% is the bigger at this point in an election cycle since pollsters started asking this type of question in 1980. The previous record was Trump in the 2016 campaign, when 65% of voters had a very favorable or unfavorable opinion about Trump. A similar 64% of voters had a strongly favorable or unfavorable view of George W. Bush during his re-election fight in 2004. No other presidential candidate has ever reached 55%, which tells you how historically polarizing Trump is.

Now, compare Trump’s numbers to Biden’s numbers this year in the same polls. A relatively low 46% (compared to Trump) say they have a strongly favorable or unfavorable opinion on Biden. Distributed, which includes 18% very favorable and 28% very unfavorable.

In other words, voters are 23 points less likely to have a stronger Biden position than Trump. There is much more room to maneuver to bring down Biden than there is to lift Trump.

Even if Trump is able to move the needle slightly, it could be a big deal. Trump’s deficit against Biden averaged around 6 points nationwide.

Put another way, Trump’s campaign strategy makes a lot of sense.

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However, something sensible and something that is actually working are two very different things.

The elections in which incumbents are held usually concern incumbents. In the poll we have seen so far in these elections, the choice of voters is strongly related to feelings towards Trump, not Biden. Trump is winning about 90% of the voters who have a favorable opinion of him, since Biden is taking about 90% who have an unfavorable view of Trump. This is a very different story from 2016, when Hillary Clinton won less than 80% of those who disliked Trump.

The fact that so many voters have an enhanced vision of Trump could tell us something about the trajectory of this breed in the future. Biden’s lead in the polls has been fairly stable. There is no guarantee that the polls will remain so, but history suggests that it could very well.

How Trump broke the polls

Since 1980, elections in which the results differ significantly from the polls at this point tend to be when the views of the incumbent president are not strongly supported. The two elections in office (1980 and 1992) in which the difference between the polls at the moment and the results were greater than 5 points were those in which only a third (33%) of voters had a strongly favorable or unfavorable opinion of the incumbent .

Biden's invisible campaign is winning

Now, look at the elections where the strength of opinions about the president looks more like this: 2004 and 2012. They were the only ones before the elections in which over 50% had a strong opinion of the incumbent at this point. Those elections saw the smallest rounds (respectively 3 and 2 points) between the polls at the moment and the results.

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Trump, of course, is trying to keep the polls from staying fixed by focusing on the less defined Biden. Again, it’s not a bad idea. But while opinions on Biden are less supported than Trump, they are rather strongly related to the previous challengers. No other challenger (including John Kerry in 2004 and Mitt Romney in 2012) since 1980 has had as many voters who have given them a highly favorable or highly unfavorable rating.

That is, it will be easier to move opinions on Biden than on Trump, but that does not necessarily mean that it will be simple or even effective.


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