Chaotic, uncertain, full of turmoil, but also of solidarity and adaptation: this year 2020 was like no other. The global health crisis has surprised the biggest powers and tested our capabilities for resistance and resilience.
In 2021, many economic, geopolitical, social and climatic challenges await us, in the dawn of a world that must continue to adapt to survive. Survived health, economic and climate crises, but also adapted to many political changes and wishes for greater freedom and democracy expressed by citizens of many countries.
An important year for the European Union, which is making a recovery plan based on a common debt and which faces the departure of the United Kingdom at the end of a transition period and after several years of negotiations under tension.
Kovid-19: Follow-up and vaccines?
This year 2021 should be marked by the arrival of one or more vaccines. Britain was the first country in the world to draw its own. But many questions remain unanswered: what will be the immunity developed by those who have received it? How many people will choose to administer it? Will it allow a return to normal life?
Seen as a cure for all our diseases by governments around the world, these vaccines were developed in record time and some countries feared and mistrusted more than others. Another question: will it have access to the entire planet or will its distribution only reflect inequalities between rich and poor countries? This vaccine would undoubtedly be the greatest test of solidarity on a planetary scale that would or would not demonstrate the ability of great powers to ensure their equal access.
Joe Biden: Change is now?
2021 will also be the year of promise of change in the United States. Donald Trump beaten, even if the latter doesn’t want to recognize it, making way for Biden, whose entry on 20 January will mark the Democrats’ return to power 4 years after the Trumpist mandate, marking good results . Economic, but also by the growing of divisions crossing the Americas.
The challenges of the new US president will be many: to prevent an epidemic that has killed several hundred people, but also to cover a country plagued by racial questions and inequalities.
On the international front, will relations with Europe calm down and will the new president end trade wars? Actually, everything probably won’t be that easy. On the method, there should be a change with the return of multilateralism. Witness the declared and promised withdrawal of the United States within the Paris Climate Agreement.
Climate, always at the heart of concerns and decisions?
The 2015 climate agreement would also have celebrated its 5th anniversary in December 2020. In addition, on the occasion of this anniversary, the European Union has decided to revise its goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But non-governmental organizations consider the agreement a sham and insufficient to fulfill the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Another topic that will test the ability of the new European Commission to improve depth: migration and asylum. In 2020, a Moria camp fire in Greece brought to light a system failure. After years of laxity and while countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece and Malta have complained about the lack of delivery of efforts on the continent, the new European agreement for migration and asylum to escalate the fight against illegal immigration , But to make the member states more united with each other to protect rescue operations by non-governmental organizations, so that they can advance the fight against illegal immigration.
Economy: After Chaos, Recovery?
On the economic front, “anarchy” was the term that could sum up by 2020, with “uncertainty” undoubtedly the key word for early 2021. The IMF has revised its growth forecast downwards and is expected to recover for the year. The next one may take longer than expected.
The arrival of vaccines may be the lifeline of the economy’s need, but colossal stimulus schemes leave a salty slate: countries already debt-ridden are more, inequalities are increasing and the effects of the crisis won’t fade into a picture .
Although Europe has managed to agree on an incentive scheme that includes common lending – the first on the European continent – Britain’s final departure from the European Union by 1 January is suspect for many regions. While trust between London and Brussels has been damaged by years of torture negotiations, this Brexit is also a challenge for the European Union. Twenty-Seven will have to get used to this new partner, who could also be a contestant at its doorstep.
The month of January will therefore be busy with the end of the transition period, which will certainly act on the beginning of a new era for Brexit and relations between the United Kingdom and Twenty-Seven. In the United States, many are also anticipating the beginning of a new era when Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20 at the age of 78 to become the 46th President of the United States. But Kovid-19 said, the crowd had gathered in front of the White House without a hitch.
This will be followed by a number of political issues with legislative elections in Bulgaria in the coming months, which comes after mass protests against corruption during the second half of 2020. The presidential election was also to be tried in Kosovo for “war crimes” and “crimes against humanity” in The Hague, following the resignation of its president Hashim Thaci in 2020.
On 6 May, the Scots are also called for election. He had voted in a majority against Brexit. And it turns out that the results of the latter, the election of Boris Johnson and the handling of the coronovirus crisis have strengthened the ranks of freedom advocates. Scotland’s Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon has called for a new referendum on the issue at the start of the next legislature.
International meetings will also be on the program in May 2021. There will be Davos Economic Forum in Singapore, not in Davos. And there should still be the Eurovision Song Contest back in May.
Iran will elect its new president in June. After two words, the liberal Hassan Rouhani should leave his place, as the country faces a severe economic crisis following the resumption of heavy US sanctions. In this election and the new presidential term, Biden relies on the future of negotiations on Iranian nuclear power, while Tehran has relieved itself of most of its obligations under the Vienna Agreement.
Two months later, it’s a sad anniversary that Americans will remember: 20 years of the September 11, 2001 attacks. But this month of September will also be marked by significant legislative elections in Russia, one marked year after 2020, the other. , Through constitutional changes and attempts to poison the anti-Alexey Navalny.
Finally, before the elections in the Czech Republic in October, the end-of-year event will be held in Germany. The new majority, elected at the end of the September 26 legislative elections, will be appointed Chancellor – or Chancellor – who will succeed Angela Merkel. After 16 years in power, the Chancellor topped the popularity. A textbook case in Europe in times of crisis.
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