United Kingdom: What If Scotland Closed…

United Kingdom: What If Scotland Closed…

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Pictures of Nicola Sturgeon, in a red tartan tailored dress in front of the Stone of Destiny at Edinburgh Castle, have toured the world. It was shortly after midnight on September 24, 2022, in a medieval and majestic setting, that the Prime Minister of Scotland announced the results of a second referendum on the country’s independence. Eight years after the first day, the Scots have pronounced Yes 55% against clearly 45% in favor of freedom. On doing so, he abolished the Confederacy, which had annexed him from 1707 to England. The United Kingdom is no more. History will remember that it was President Emmanuel Macron, re-elected a few months ago, the first foreign head of state to congratulate Nicola SturgeonAuld Alliance, Since 1295, the old alliance between the two countries.

A former Scottish separatist MP, according to Stephen Gethins, is now professor and author of international relations at the University of St Andrews Nation to Nation, Scotland is ranked in the world, There is nothing absurd about this imaginary scenario. During the legislative elections of May 6, 2021, it may also begin this week. The SNP (Scottish Nationalist Party) and its leader Nicola Sturgeon’s referendum for separatists in power will pave the way for a new organization to be consulted on the country’s future – even if British Prime Minister Boris Johnson does not want to hear about it. However, for more than twelve months, surveys show the SNP victorious.

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Freedom won heart

If, in the more or less distant future, Scotland closes, “the first hours will be significant”, believes political scientist Stephen Gethins, who envisions Nicola Sturgeon’s first inaugural speech. Freedom has won hearts, especially among those under 40, as it stands in stark contrast to Brexit and is based on “a desire for multilateral cooperation and a return to the European Union”, he explains — he does. Continuing the practice of anticipation, this former head of foreign affairs in the Horrod Parliament found it logical that the first visit by the new Scottish “head of state” would be reserved for London and the second for Brussels. Because Scotland remains the first economic, financial and cultural partner and will always be England. “Where Scotland can be very useful to the European Union, it continues, with England in a hyphen role.”

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The creation of the 196th state recognized by the United Nations However, Brexit between the two Ireland: a new headache for the English after customs due to their physical border with Scotland. Will England, Wales and Northern Ireland have to design a common space for exchanges with Scotland, once it joins the European Union?

Another major challenge is the economy. The consequences of Brexit and the epidemic, not to mention falling oil revenues from the North Sea, are currently widening the Scottish public deficit, which could reach 10% of GDP by 2025. Two options – one is also unpopular compared to the other. For the new “Scottish states” themselves, who would find themselves deprived of public funds in the United Kingdom: to cut expenses or raise taxes. “Large-scale tax adjustment seems inevitable,” says economist Neil Shearing. Unless, of course, to rely on financial markets to borrow at low rates. If economists such as Professor Thomas Sampson at the London School of Economics believe that Scotland can prosper in the long term, “the transition period however promises to be stormy” and possibly long and painful.

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Others, such as Stephen Gethins, are more optimistic: “The immigration policy advocated by the separatists should boost the economy.” And let’s not forget the Scottish migrant. “For every Scotsman living in Scotland, there are 14 more people in the world, an impressive expatriate of 70 million people.” These patriots may come to his aid – especially the 10 million Scots living in North America. Filled with resources, the Scottish specifically invented telephone and television. But “there is nothing more constructive than creating a new nation,” said one of the most famous of them, Sean Connery.


opinion

Ultimatum

Credit: Laura ACQUAVIVABy Christophe Donner

Thoughts and debate

"It may be time to be concerned with the fact that today it is possible to actively contribute to collective disintegration without seeing the words of a person.", Ton Marilyn Meso.Pair Marilyn Masu

Economy

Philip Brasac, Chief Executive Officer of Credite Agricole SA in Paris, 8 March 2016By Philippe Bradac, Managing Director of Credite Agricole S.A.

Power key

France, Paris, December 14, 2019, portrait of François Bajin.By François Bazin

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