Biden is anticipating the 2016 Clinton pace

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Biden is anticipating the 2016 Clinton pace

What’s the point: Almost every time I explain that Tren is the leader of Biden, someone will inevitably make it appear “but what about 2016.” That’s why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign.

It is one of the first times in the election year that Biden clearly ran ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 pace in the matchup against Trump.

Four years ago, Trump closed the national divide quickly with Clinton as he was defeating Republican rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the presidential race. Clinton’s average lead decreased from 10 points in the first half of April to 6 points in the second half of April to 4 points in the first half of May to a simple 1 point in the surveys completed four years ago between 16 May and 23 May.
In terms of high-quality individual surveys, there is no need to look beyond Fox News. Clinton followed Trump 3 points in a Fox News survey four years ago between May 16 and May 23. Now Biden has gained 8 points in the same survey.
In fact, Clinton also had a high quality live phone ABC News / Washington Post survey four years ago completed between May 16 and May 23.

Biden in particular did not follow a single live interview survey throughout the year.

Although Clinton would have regained some of its advantages in June 2016, the fact that the race had become so close to this point four years ago was an indication that the electorate was somewhat unstable. It showed that under the right circumstances, Clinton could lose nationally or, at the very least, that Trump could get close enough nationally to win at the constituency.

Biden’s advantage, of course, is the most stable of all time. His advantage has never fallen to a certain point or to a nearby point. It has been consistently at around 6 points, as it has been this week. If I were to create a 95% confidence interval around the individual 2016 and 2020 polls, the 2016 race was about 1.5 times more volatile up to this point.

But it is not only the margin that is important to examine. Look at the voting percentages.

The reason why Biden’s advantage is so broad compared to Clinton’s is that he has an advantage of just over 5 points compared to where Clinton was in terms of percentage of votes. Biden is slightly above 48%, while Clinton was slightly below 43%.

Even when Clinton’s lead widened in June, it never reached 48% in the polls. He has had to gather many more voters who decide late because his advantage feels sure how much Biden will likely need.

Interestingly, Trump is actually rolling about the same percentage of votes in the polls as he was in late May 2016. Without rounding up, he’s only making about 0.4 points worse.

At the end of May there were a lot of undecided or third-party voters. Without rounding, Biden and Trump add up on average 89.5% of the vote. Clinton and Trump have increased by 84.9%.

Keep in mind that only some of the polls conducted four years ago between May 16 and 23 included libertarian Gary Johnson as an option. By focusing only on those who chose him as a choice, Clinton and Trump got stuck at just under 39%. That is, Trump was tied to Clinton even though he had a lower voting share than he currently has in the 2020 polls. The main candidates for the party together added up to 77% in the polls that investigated Johnson.

When the undecided and third-party vote is high in the polls, it means more uncertainty. Third party applications tend to deflate during the election year. The combination of undecided voter blocs and third party voters offers major party candidates a larger pool from which to gather voters.
In other words, Trump had more room for maneuver four years ago to gather ground. And, in fact, Trump has won thanks to his support among voters who have decided in the last month.

More Americans have already said they want to vote for Biden in the more likely general election meeting than Clinton has ever done at any point in the past six months of that campaign.

The obvious question that goes on is whether Biden can keep up. So far, he and his basement campaign have been up to the challenge.

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